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A factor model for the cross-section of country equity risk premia

Author

Listed:
  • Fieberg, Christian
  • Liedtke, Gerrit
  • Zaremba, Adam
  • Cakici, Nusret

Abstract

We employ instrumented principal component analysis (IPCA) to provide a new factor model for the cross-section of country equity risk premia. Using data from 71 equity markets, we identify latent factors and condition betas on a comprehensive set of accounting and market characteristics from the finance literature. A four-factor conditional asset pricing model best captures the variation in country returns, beating prominent factor models. IPCA’s superior performance stems primarily from its enhanced ability to predict emerging market returns while also generalizing well to developed markets. Among the global “signal zoo”, size, momentum, volatility, political risk, and valuation are the most important predictors of return differences.

Suggested Citation

  • Fieberg, Christian & Liedtke, Gerrit & Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret, 2025. "A factor model for the cross-section of country equity risk premia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:171:y:2025:i:c:s0378426624002875
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107373
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Instrumented principal component analysis; IPCA; International asset pricing; Factor model; Return predictability; Equity anomalies; Country equity risk premium; Cross-section of stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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