IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v135y2022ics0378426620302260.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stress testing and bank business patterns: A regression discontinuity study

Author

Listed:
  • García, Raffi E.
  • Steele, Suzanne

Abstract

This paper examines whether forward-looking disclosure requirements impact firm business patterns. We rely on the implementation of the Comprehensive Capital Analysis Review (CCAR) stress test on U.S. bank holding companies as our identification strategy. Using a regression discontinuity design to exploit the quasi-experimental properties of the regulation around the different bank-size policy thresholds, we document four key findings. First, stress testing reduces moral hazard by decreasing the ratio of risk-weighted assets to total assets. Second, the decrease in moral hazard is not at the expense of bank lending since reducing risk results in higher concentrations in lending as banks shift out of higher-risk assets. Third, stress test banks’ lower risk is perceived by investors and results in lower funding costs relative to non-stress test banks. Fourth, the increase in regulatory oversight and stricter capital and transparency requirements do not cause large banks to manipulate their bank size to avoid complying with the stress test requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • García, Raffi E. & Steele, Suzanne, 2022. "Stress testing and bank business patterns: A regression discontinuity study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:135:y:2022:i:c:s0378426620302260
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105964
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426620302260
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105964?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miriam Bruhn & David McKenzie, 2009. "In Pursuit of Balance: Randomization in Practice in Development Field Experiments," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(4), pages 200-232, October.
    2. Calem, Paul & Correa, Ricardo & Lee, Seung Jung, 2020. "Prudential policies and their impact on credit in the United States," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    3. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    4. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti & Itay Goldstein & Agnese Leonello, 2015. "Moral Hazard and Government Guarantees in the Banking Industry," Journal of Financial Regulation, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 30-50.
    5. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2013. "How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 146-176.
    6. Fernandes, Marcelo & Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo, 2020. "March madness in Wall Street: (What) does the market learn from stress tests?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    7. Morris Goldstein, 2017. "Banking's Final Exam: Stress Testing and Bank-Capital Reform," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 7052, January.
    8. Schuermann, Til, 2014. "Stress testing banks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 717-728.
    9. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry & Ma, Kebin, 2013. "How does corporate governance affect bank capitalization strategies ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6636, The World Bank.
    10. Steven D. Levitt & John A. List, 2011. "Was There Really a Hawthorne Effect at the Hawthorne Plant? An Analysis of the Original Illumination Experiments," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 224-238, January.
    11. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    12. Jose M. Berrospide & Rochelle M. Edge, 2010. "The Effects of Bank Capital on Lending: What Do We Know, and What Does It Mean?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(34), pages 1-50, December.
    13. Cornett, Marcia Millon & Minnick, Kristina & Schorno, Patrick J. & Tehranian, Hassan, 2020. "An examination of bank behavior around Federal Reserve stress tests," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    14. Chiorazzo, Vincenzo & D'Apice, Vincenzo & DeYoung, Robert & Morelli, Pierluigi, 2018. "Is the Traditional Banking Model a Survivor?," MPRA Paper 90296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Brian S. Chen & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein, 2017. "The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 23843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Deli, Yota D. & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2017. "Real effects of bank capital regulations: Global evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 217-228.
    17. Luzi Hail & Christian Leuz, 2006. "International Differences in the Cost of Equity Capital: Do Legal Institutions and Securities Regulation Matter?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 485-531, June.
    18. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    19. Jungherr, Joachim, 2018. "Bank opacity and financial crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 157-176.
    20. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    21. Jose M. Berrospide & Rochelle M. Edge, 2010. "The effects of bank capital on lending: what do we know, and what does it mean?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Chiorazzo, Vincenzo & D'Apice, Vincenzo & DeYoung, Robert & Morelli, Pierluigi, 2018. "Is the traditional banking model a survivor?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 238-256.
    23. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Shin, Hyun Song, 2018. "Why bank capital matters for monetary policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 17-29.
    24. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    25. Cortés, Kristle R. & Demyanyk, Yuliya & Li, Lei & Loutskina, Elena & Strahan, Philip E., 2020. "Stress tests and small business lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 260-279.
    26. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein & Adi Sunderam, 2017. "Strengthening and Streamlining Bank Capital Regulation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 479-565.
    27. Jose M. Berrospide & Rochelle M. Edge, 2010. "The effects of bank capital on lending: What do we know, and what does it mean?," CAMA Working Papers 2010-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    28. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2002. "Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1373-1406, October.
    29. Carlson, Mark & Shan, Hui & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2013. "Capital ratios and bank lending: A matched bank approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 663-687.
    30. Jens Ludwig & Douglas L. Miller, 2007. "Does Head Start Improve Children's Life Chances? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 159-208.
    31. Pettersson-Lidbom, Per, 2012. "Does the size of the legislature affect the size of government? Evidence from two natural experiments," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 269-278.
    32. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti & Agnese Leonello, 2011. "Deposit insurance and risk taking," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(3), pages 464-478.
    33. Guido Imbens & Karthik Kalyanaraman, 2012. "Optimal Bandwidth Choice for the Regression Discontinuity Estimator," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(3), pages 933-959.
    34. Sahin, Cenkhan & de Haan, Jakob & Neretina, Ekaterina, 2020. "Banking stress test effects on returns and risks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    35. Acharya, Viral V. & Berger, Allen N. & Roman, Raluca A., 2018. "Lending implications of U.S. bank stress tests: Costs or benefits?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 58-90.
    36. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
    37. Veronica Grembi & Tommaso Nannicini & Ugo Troiano, 2016. "Do Fiscal Rules Matter?," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 1-30, July.
    38. Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1994. "Do Risk-Based Capital Allocate Bank Credit and Cause a "Credit Crunch"' in the United States?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 585-628, August.
    39. Anna Kovner & Peter Van Tassel & Brandon Zborowski, 2018. "Regulatory Changes and the Cost of Capital for Banks," Liberty Street Economics 20181001a, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    40. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_023 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2004. "Market discipline and deposit insurance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 375-399, March.
    42. James Claus & Jacob Thomas, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    43. Lukas Ahnert & Pascal Vogt & Volker Vonhoff & Florian Weigert, 2018. "The Impact of Regulatory Stress Testing on Bank's Equity and CDS Performance," Working Papers on Finance 1814, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    44. William R. Gebhardt & Charles M. C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2001. "Toward an Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 135-176, June.
    45. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    46. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2015. "Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Bank Regulation, Capital Structure, and the Low-Risk Anomaly," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 315-320, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nguyen, Thach Vu Hong & Ahmed, Shamim & Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Onali, Enrico, 2020. "Do stress tests affect bank liquidity creation?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Zheng, Yi, 2020. "Does bank opacity affect lending?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Simona Malovana & Martin Hodula & Josef Bajzik & Zuzana Gric, 2021. "A Tale of Different Capital Ratios: How to Correctly Assess the Impact of Capital Regulation on Lending," Working Papers 2021/8, Czech National Bank.
    4. De Jonghe, Olivier & Dewachter, Hans & Ongena, Steven, 2020. "Bank capital (requirements) and credit supply: Evidence from pillar 2 decisions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    5. Simona Malovaná & Dominika Ehrenbergerová, 2022. "The effect of higher capital requirements on bank lending: the capital surplus matters," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 793-832, August.
    6. Retselisitsoe I. Thamae & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "The impact of bank regulation on bank lending: a review of international literature," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 405-418, December.
    7. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    8. Kasim Ahmed & Giovanni Calice, 2023. "The effects of supervisory stress testing on bank lending: examining large UK banks," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 228-247, June.
    9. Fang, Xiang & Jutrsa, David & Peria, Soledad Martinez & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Ratnovski, Lev, 2022. "Bank capital requirements and lending in emerging markets: The role of bank characteristics and economic conditions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    10. Luu, Hiep Ngoc & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The Impact of Supervisory Stress Tests on Bank Ex-Ante Risk-Taking Behaviour: Empirical Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Köppl–Turyna, Monika & Pitlik, Hans, 2018. "Do equalization payments affect subnational borrowing? Evidence from regression discontinuity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 84-108.
    12. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Gross, Marco & Behn, Markus, 2016. "Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 1935, European Central Bank.
    13. Paul-Olivier Klein & Rima Turk-Ariss, 2022. "Bank capital and economic activity," Post-Print hal-03955630, HAL.
    14. Hansen, Benjamin & Miller, Keaton & Weber, Caroline, 2020. "Federalism, partial prohibition, and cross-border sales: Evidence from recreational marijuana," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    15. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy, Countercyclical Bank Capital Buffers, and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Spanish Dynamic Provisioning Experiments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 2126-2177.
    16. Bergolo, M. & Cruces, G., 2021. "The anatomy of behavioral responses to social assistance when informal employment is high," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    17. Belkhir, Mohamed & Ben Naceur, Sami & Chami, Ralph & Samet, Anis, 2021. "Bank capital and the cost of equity," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    18. Lambertini, Luisa & Mukherjee, Abhik, 2022. "Stress tests and loan pricing—Evidence from syndicated loans," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    19. Košak, Marko & Li, Shaofang & Lončarski, Igor & Marinč, Matej, 2015. "Quality of bank capital and bank lending behavior during the global financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 168-183.
    20. Zheng, Yi & Wu, Da, 2023. "The impact of opacity on bank valuation during the global financial crisis: A channel analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking; Stress tests; Regulation; Capital requirements; Credit supply; Regression discontinuity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:135:y:2022:i:c:s0378426620302260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.