IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v124y2021ics0378426621000182.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Breaking VIX at open: Evidence of uncertainty creation and resolution

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Jingjing
  • Jiang, George J.
  • Yuan, Chaowen
  • Zhu, Dongming

Abstract

We decompose daily (close-to-close) changes of VIX into overnight (close-to-open) and trading-hour (open-to-close) changes. Consistent with the notion that non-trading creates uncertainty and trading resolves uncertainty, we find that on average VIX increases overnight and decreases during trading hours. More importantly, we document an important seasonality in VIX, i.e., the non-trading day effect. Overnight increase of VIX involving weekends or holidays is significantly higher than that over two consecutive trading days. We also document that VIX exhibits a clear pattern around pre-scheduled overnight and trading-hour macroeconomic announcement. Finally, we show that breaking VIX changes into overnight and trading-hour components and incorporating the non-trading day effect lead to not only significant improvements in in-sample fitting but also superior performance of out-of-sample-forecasting and active trading strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Jingjing & Jiang, George J. & Yuan, Chaowen & Zhu, Dongming, 2021. "Breaking VIX at open: Evidence of uncertainty creation and resolution," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:124:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621000182
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106060
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426621000182
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106060?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qadan, Mahmoud & Nisani, Doron & Eichel, Ron, 2022. "Irregularities in forward-looking volatility," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 489-501.
    2. Albers, Stefan & Kestner, Lars N., 2024. "The daily rise and fall of the VIX1D: Causes and solutions of its overnight bias," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    3. George J. Jiang & Guanzhong Pan, 2022. "Speculation or hedging?—Options trading prior to FOMC announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 212-230, February.
    4. Huang, Hong-Gia & Tsai, Wei-Che & Weng, Pei-Shih & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2023. "Intraday momentum in the VIX futures market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    VIX index; Uncertainty creation; Uncertainty resolution; Macroeconomic announcements; Out-of-sample forecasts; Trading strategy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:124:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621000182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.