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A Monte-Carlo approach to estimating the effects of selected airport capacity options in London

Author

Listed:
  • Irvine, Daniel
  • Budd, Lucy C.S.
  • Pitfield, David E.

Abstract

The issue of future airport capacity in London is currently the subject of much political debate in the UK. Although realistic estimates of the effects of capacity enhancement may be desirable, such estimates are difficult. Through the use of Monte Carlo simulation, this paper quantifies and compares the relative capacity enhancements that may be afforded by the construction of a new hub airport in the Thames Estuary, additional runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and changes to operating practices at Heathrow. The simulations show that a new hub airport would be the most effective way to increase capacity, although the reported financial and environmental costs of such a development indicate a comparatively poor rate of return. Proposed new runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and the removal of runway alternation at Heathrow provide more modest increases in capacity.

Suggested Citation

  • Irvine, Daniel & Budd, Lucy C.S. & Pitfield, David E., 2015. "A Monte-Carlo approach to estimating the effects of selected airport capacity options in London," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:42:y:2015:i:c:p:1-9
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2014.06.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Lieder, Alexander & Stolletz, Raik, 2016. "Scheduling aircraft take-offs and landings on interdependent and heterogeneous runways," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 167-188.
    2. Zhong, Z.W. & Varun, Dhir & Lin, Y.J., 2017. "Studies for air traffic management R&D in the ASEAN-region context," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(PA), pages 15-20.

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