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Impact of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) on air safety: Evidence from Airbus® TCAS/ROSE simulators

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  • Escolà -Gascón, à lex
  • Dagnall, Neil
  • Denovan, Andrew
  • Drinkwater, Kenneth

Abstract

The present research was designed to provide evidence into why and when Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) occur and pose a threat to aviation safety. Specifically, the goal was to understand how causal illusions interact with perceptual biases with and without irrational reasoning. A total of 408 airline pilots participated in an experiment using Airbus® aircraft TCAS/ROSE simulators. Analyses were conducted using structural equation modeling (SEM), controlling for the effects of fatigue and flight hours. Results indicated that causal illusions were 82.4% predictive of UAP sightings only when magical inference was present. Our experimental evidence shows that UAPs may be explained as cognitive biases and would pose a threat to aviation safety if pilots—or even aircraft AIs—were to detect them in an irrational way (e.g., as alien objects). A novel theorization that integrates major perception, clinical, and cognition models is offered. Additionally, the authors discuss the implications for aviation safety and determine when a UAP sighting may pose a real danger on a commercial flight.

Suggested Citation

  • Escolà -Gascón, à lex & Dagnall, Neil & Denovan, Andrew & Drinkwater, Kenneth, 2024. "Impact of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) on air safety: Evidence from Airbus® TCAS/ROSE simulators," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:119:y:2024:i:c:s0969699724000826
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102617
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antonio, Fernando J. & Itami, Andreia S. & Dalmedico, Jônatas F. & Mendes, Renio S., 2022. "On the dynamics of reporting data: A case study of UFO sightings," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
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