IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaitra/v118y2024ics0969699724000644.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing economic performance and aviation accidents using zero-inflated and over-dispersed panel data models

Author

Listed:
  • Pérez-Granja, Ubay
  • Pérez-Sánchez, José María
  • Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V.

Abstract

This paper explores the link between air transport safety and profitability. Traditionally, the empirical literature has used Poisson regression models to estimate the expected number of accidents given the profitability of the airline. However, there are two major deficiencies in this analysis related to the statistical properties of the data. First, the equi-dispersion assumed in Poisson models hardly holds in the airline data. Second, accidents are rare cases, so the data has an excess of zeros. In this paper, we propose the use of a zero-inflated negative binomial model to deal with these shortcomings. Our results show several interesting facts. On the one hand, they show that airlines with higher levels of profitability are less likely to have an accident. On the other hand, when an accident occurs, there is a higher expected number of accidents in airlines with higher profitability. Finally, the severity of an accident has an inverse relationship with profitability.

Suggested Citation

  • Pérez-Granja, Ubay & Pérez-Sánchez, José María & Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V., 2024. "Assessing economic performance and aviation accidents using zero-inflated and over-dispersed panel data models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:118:y:2024:i:c:s0969699724000644
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102599
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699724000644
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102599?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:118:y:2024:i:c:s0969699724000644. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-air-transport-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.