IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaecon/v78y2024i2s0165410124000417.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does accounting information identify bubbles for Fama? Evidence from accruals

Author

Listed:
  • Arif, Salman
  • Sul, Edward

Abstract

Economists have long observed that stock price bubbles are associated with corporate overinvestment. We study the ex-ante identification of bubbles (i.e. stock price booms followed by busts) by examining industry-level investments in net operating asset (NOA) accruals and stock returns for 49 countries around the world. Consistent with overinvestment in operating assets being key to bubble formation, we document five findings: (1) NOA accruals positively forecast the eventual crash of an industry price run-up; (2) NOA accruals negatively forecast stock returns following a run-up; (3) NOA accruals are positively associated with investor sentiment; (4) higher NOA accruals forecast more disappointing earnings relative to analysts’ expectations for run-up industries; and (5) NOA accruals are sharply stronger predictors of crashes, returns and analyst forecast errors following run-ups compared to other periods. Our results provide the first evidence that accounting information identifies stock price bubbles and suggest that financial statements are important for detecting and anticipating industry- and market-level inefficiencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Arif, Salman & Sul, Edward, 2024. "Does accounting information identify bubbles for Fama? Evidence from accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:78:y:2024:i:2:s0165410124000417
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101711
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165410124000417
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jacceco.2024.101711?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:78:y:2024:i:2:s0165410124000417. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jae .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.