IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaecon/v72y2021i1s0165410121000197.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Learning about risk-factor exposures from earnings: Implications for asset pricing and manipulation

Author

Listed:
  • Beyer, Anne
  • Smith, Kevin C.

Abstract

When valuing a firm, investors must assess not only its expected future cash flows but also the systematic risk inherent in these cash flows. In this paper, we model the process by which investors may learn about firms' betas from earnings and how this learning process affects the relationship between earnings, announcement returns, and expected future returns. The model's main predictions are: (i) earnings response coefficients vary with macroeconomic conditions and are lower in upswings than downturns; (ii) earnings positively and negatively predict future returns in economic upswings and downturns, respectively, leading to return autocorrelation; and (iii) real earnings management rises in economic downturns and contributes to systematic risk in the economy. These predictions are directly attributable to investors' uncertainty regarding firms' exposures to systematic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Beyer, Anne & Smith, Kevin C., 2021. "Learning about risk-factor exposures from earnings: Implications for asset pricing and manipulation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:72:y:2021:i:1:s0165410121000197
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2021.101404
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165410121000197
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jacceco.2021.101404?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthias Breuer & David Windisch, 2019. "Investment Dynamics and Earnings‐Return Properties: A Structural Approach," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 639-674, June.
    2. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2009. "The Price Is (Almost) Right," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2739-2782, December.
    3. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2005. "The economic implications of corporate financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 3-73, December.
    4. Bernard, Vl & Thomas, Jk, 1989. "Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift - Delayed Price Response Or Risk Premium," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 1-36.
    5. Christopher S. Armstrong & Snehal Banerjee & Carlos Corona, 2013. "Factor-Loading Uncertainty and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 158-207.
    6. Jeremy C. Stein, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets, Inefficient Firms: A Model of Myopic Corporate Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 655-669.
    7. Smith, Kevin & So, Eric C., 2020. "Measuring Risk Information," Research Papers 3857, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    8. Dechow, Patricia & Ge, Weili & Schrand, Catherine, 2010. "Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 344-401, December.
    9. Robert Novy-Marx, 2015. "Fundamentally, Momentum is Fundamental Momentum," NBER Working Papers 20984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December.
    11. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Chordia, Tarun & Shivakumar, Lakshmanan, 2006. "Earnings and price momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 627-656, June.
    13. Evelyn Korn, 2004. "Voluntary Disclosure Of Partially Verifiable Information," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 56(2), pages 139-163, April.
    14. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. "Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-155, March.
    15. Choi, Jung Ho & Kalay, Alon & Sadka, Gil, 2016. "Earnings news, expected earnings, and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 110-143.
    16. Thomas Hemmer & Eva Labro, 2019. "Management by the Numbers: A Formal Approach to Deriving Informational and Distributional Properties of “Unmanaged” Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 5-51, March.
    17. Tarun Chordia & Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2002. "Momentum, Business Cycle, and Time‐varying Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 985-1019, April.
    18. Murphy, Kevin J. & Zimmerman, Jerold L., 1993. "Financial performance surrounding CEO turnover," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-3), pages 273-315, April.
    19. repec:oup:rfinst:v:26:y::i:1:p:158-207 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Roychowdhury, Sugata, 2006. "Earnings management through real activities manipulation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 335-370, December.
    21. Penman, Stephen & Zhang, Xiao-Jun, 2020. "A theoretical analysis connecting conservative accounting to the cost of capital," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1).
    22. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    23. Richard Lambert & Christian Leuz & Robert E. Verrecchia, 2007. "Accounting Information, Disclosure, and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 385-420, May.
    24. Basu, Sudipta, 1997. "The conservatism principle and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 3-37, December.
    25. Ray Ball & Gil Sadka & Ronnie Sadka, 2009. "Aggregate Earnings and Asset Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 1097-1133, December.
    26. Günter Strobl, 2013. "Earnings Manipulation and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 449-473, May.
    27. Jonathan Lewellen, 2002. "Momentum and Autocorrelation in Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 533-564, March.
    28. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1553-1583 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Ronald A. Dye & Sri S. Sridhar, 2004. "Reliability‐Relevance Trade‐Offs and the Efficiency of Aggregation," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 51-88, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ray Ball & Gil Sadka & Ayung Tseng, 2022. "Using accounting earnings and aggregate economic indicators to estimate firm-level systematic risk," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 607-646, June.
    2. Roychowdhury, Sugata & Shroff, Nemit & Verdi, Rodrigo S., 2019. "The effects of financial reporting and disclosure on corporate investment: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2).
    3. Fargher, Neil & Wee, Marvin, 2019. "The impact of Ball and Brown (1968) on generations of research," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 55-72.
    4. Henry Jarva & Matthijs Lof, 2024. "Identifying accounting conservatism in the presence of skewness," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 553-577, February.
    5. Wang, Jun & Wu, Yangru, 2011. "Risk adjustment and momentum sources," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1427-1435, June.
    6. Badryah Alhusaini & Kimball L. Chapman & Hal D. White, 2023. "Private disclosure and myopia: evidence from the JOBS act," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1570-1617, September.
    7. Chandra Kanodia & Haresh Sapra, 2016. "A Real Effects Perspective to Accounting Measurement and Disclosure: Implications and Insights for Future Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 623-676, May.
    8. Ivelina Pavlova & A. M. Parhizgari, 2011. "In search of momentum profits: are they illusory?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(21), pages 1617-1639.
    9. Jeremy Bertomeu & Edwige Cheynel & Edward Xuejun Li & Ying Liang, 2021. "How Pervasive Is Earnings Management? Evidence from a Structural Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 5145-5162, August.
    10. Li, Kai, 2021. "Nonlinear effect of sentiment on momentum," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    12. Andrew B. Jackson & Brian R. Rountree & Konduru Sivaramakrishnan, 2017. "Earnings co-movements and earnings manipulation," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1340-1365, September.
    13. Atif Ellahie, 2021. "Earnings beta," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-122, March.
    14. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    15. Azevedo, Vitor, 2023. "Analysts’ underreaction and momentum strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    16. Jeroen Suijs, 2008. "On the Value Relevance of Asymmetric Financial Reporting Policies," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1297-1321, December.
    17. S. Price & Dean Gatzlaff & C. Sirmans, 2012. "Information Uncertainty and the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift Anomaly: Insights from REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 250-274, January.
    18. Yu, Zeng, 2024. "Essays on incentive contract and corporate finance," Other publications TiSEM 6f66f49e-d710-44f6-943d-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Mingzi Song & Naoto Oshiro & Akinobu Shuto, 2016. "Predicting Accounting Fraud: Evidence from Japan," The Japanese Accounting Review, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, vol. 6, pages 17-63, December.
    20. Erica X. N. Li & Dmitry Livdan & Lu Zhang, 2009. "Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4301-4334, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:72:y:2021:i:1:s0165410121000197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jae .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.