IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v30y2014i2p395-401.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A feature engineering approach to wind power forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Silva, Lucas

Abstract

This paper provides detailed information about team Leustagos’ approach to the wind power forecasting track of GEFCom 2012. The task was to predict the hourly power generation at seven wind farms, 48 hours ahead. The problem was addressed by extracting time- and weather-related features, which were used to build gradient-boosted decision trees and linear regression models. This approach achieved first place in both the public and private leaderboards.

Suggested Citation

  • Silva, Lucas, 2014. "A feature engineering approach to wind power forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 395-401.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:30:y:2014:i:2:p:395-401
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207013000836
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hong, Tao & Pinson, Pierre & Fan, Shu, 2014. "Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 357-363.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yan, Jie & Möhrlen, Corinna & Göçmen, Tuhfe & Kelly, Mark & Wessel, Arne & Giebel, Gregor, 2022. "Uncovering wind power forecasting uncertainty sources and their propagation through the whole modelling chain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    2. Guo, Zhifeng & Zhou, Kaile & Zhang, Xiaoling & Yang, Shanlin, 2018. "A deep learning model for short-term power load and probability density forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 1186-1200.
    3. Gilbert, Ciaran & Browell, Jethro & McMillan, David, 2021. "Probabilistic access forecasting for improved offshore operations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 134-150.
    4. Zhongrong Zhang & Yiliao Song & Feng Liu & Jinpeng Liu, 2016. "Daily Average Wind Power Interval Forecasts Based on an Optimal Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System and Singular Spectrum Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-30, January.
    5. Bamooeifard, Alireza, 2020. "Future studies in Iran development plans for wind power, a system dynamics modeling approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1054-1064.
    6. Wang, Lin & Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Zeng, Yu-Rong, 2018. "Effective sparse adaboost method with ESN and FOA for industrial electricity consumption forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1013-1031.
    7. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2017. "Predicting recessions with boosted regression trees," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 745-759.
    8. Feng, Cong & Cui, Mingjian & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Zhang, Jie, 2017. "A data-driven multi-model methodology with deep feature selection for short-term wind forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1245-1257.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lavička, Hynek & Kracík, Jiří, 2020. "Fluctuation analysis of electric power loads in Europe: Correlation multifractality vs. Distribution function multifractality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    2. Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Ali, Mohammad M. & Hong, Tao & Hyndman, Rob J. & Porter, Michael D. & Syntetos, Aris, 2022. "Forecasting for social good," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1245-1257.
    3. Billé, Anna Gloria & Gianfreda, Angelica & Del Grosso, Filippo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023. "Forecasting electricity prices with expert, linear, and nonlinear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 570-586.
    4. Norouzi, Mohammadali & Aghaei, Jamshid & Niknam, Taher & Alipour, Mohammadali & Pirouzi, Sasan & Lehtonen, Matti, 2023. "Risk-averse and flexi-intelligent scheduling of microgrids based on hybrid Boltzmann machines and cascade neural network forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    5. Severinsen, A. & Myrland, Ø., 2022. "ShinyRBase: Near real-time energy saving models using reactive programming," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    6. Bojer, Casper Solheim & Meldgaard, Jens Peder, 2021. "Kaggle forecasting competitions: An overlooked learning opportunity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 587-603.
    7. Manisha Sawant & Rupali Patil & Tanmay Shikhare & Shreyas Nagle & Sakshi Chavan & Shivang Negi & Neeraj Dhanraj Bokde, 2022. "A Selective Review on Recent Advancements in Long, Short and Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-24, October.
    8. Chen, Fuhao & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Yan, Yamin & Tjernberg, Lina Bertling, 2024. "A novel meta-learning approach for few-shot short-term wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 362(C).
    9. Ruhnau, Oliver & Hennig, Patrick & Madlener, Reinhard, 2020. "Economic implications of forecasting electricity generation from variable renewable energy sources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1318-1327.
    10. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Duchaud, Jean-Laurent & Gutiérrez, Luis Antonio García & Bright, Jamie M. & Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Benchmarks for solar radiation time series forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 747-762.
    11. Ivana Kiprijanovska & Simon Stankoski & Igor Ilievski & Slobodan Jovanovski & Matjaž Gams & Hristijan Gjoreski, 2020. "HousEEC: Day-Ahead Household Electrical Energy Consumption Forecasting Using Deep Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-29, May.
    12. Luo, Jian & Hong, Tao & Gao, Zheming & Fang, Shu-Cherng, 2023. "A robust support vector regression model for electric load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 1005-1020.
    13. Roach, Cameron, 2019. "Reconciled boosted models for GEFCom2017 hierarchical probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1439-1450.
    14. Massidda, Luca & Marrocu, Marino, 2023. "Total and thermal load forecasting in residential communities through probabilistic methods and causal machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    15. Mangalova, Ekaterina & Shesterneva, Olesya, 2016. "K-nearest neighbors for GEFCom2014 probabilistic wind power forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1067-1073.
    16. Rodrigo A. de Marcos & Derek W. Bunn & Antonio Bello & Javier Reneses, 2020. "Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting with Recurrent Regimes and Structural Breaks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-14, October.
    17. Jonathan Roth & Jayashree Chadalawada & Rishee K. Jain & Clayton Miller, 2021. "Uncertainty Matters: Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting for Residential Smart Meter Prediction, Segmentation, and Behavioral Measurement and Verification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, March.
    18. de Hoog, Julian & Abdulla, Khalid, 2019. "Data visualization and forecast combination for probabilistic load forecasting in GEFCom2017 final match," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1451-1459.
    19. Krzysztof Gajowniczek & Tomasz Ząbkowski, 2017. "Electricity forecasting on the individual household level enhanced based on activity patterns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, April.
    20. Makridakis, Spyros & Hyndman, Rob J. & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2020. "Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 15-28.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:30:y:2014:i:2:p:395-401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.