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United we stand divided we fall: The time-varying factors driving European Union stock returns

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  • Chiang, Shu-hen
  • Liu, Wen-Chien
  • Suardi, Sandy
  • Zhao, Jing

Abstract

Much of the literature on the economic benefits of the European Union (EU) has focused on trade liberalization. From a portfolio management perspective, this paper employs a structural vector autoregressive model of the shift-share (SS) decomposition to demonstrate the effects of regional, country, industry, and national industry factors on stock returns. Based on post-EU data for 10 sectors and 19 countries, the relative importance of these factors driving Euro stock returns is found to be time-varying due to financial integration, the global financial crisis, the Euro debt crisis, and Brexit. We find: (1) the EU regional factor dominates the behavior of all EU and non-EU members stock returns; (2) the crises decrease both country and industry factors; (3) the crises have led to greater importance in regional factor characterizing country stock returns especially amongst countries which are more integrated with the EU; (4) national industry factor is more pertinent than the other factors and provides a portfolio’s risk reduction strategy; and (5) the regional factor dominantly explains UK stock returns variation thus generating concerns over Brexit.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiang, Shu-hen & Liu, Wen-Chien & Suardi, Sandy & Zhao, Jing, 2021. "United we stand divided we fall: The time-varying factors driving European Union stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:71:y:2021:i:c:s1042443121000354
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2021.101316
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    1. Chen, Chien-Fu & Chiang, Shu-hen, 2022. "Portfolio diversification possibilities between the stock and housing markets in G7 countries: Evidence from the time-varying Granger causality," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Union; Crisis; Regional factor; Country factor; Industry factor;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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