IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfin/v49y2017icp88-102.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial market implications of monetary policy coincidences: Evidence from the UK and Euro Area government-bond markets

Author

Listed:
  • Arestis, Philip
  • Phelps, Peter

Abstract

Relatively little is known about the financial market impact of international monetary surprises arising on the same trading day. This paper estimates a suite of multi-security factor models, which captures international monetary surprise effects on UK and Euro Area government-bond markets over the period 1999–2014. In doing so, we shed light on the relative importance of coinciding, non-coinciding monetary surprises and non-monetary surprises across the yield curve. We find some support for the ‘enrich-thy-neighbour’ hypothesis of international monetary surprises, while our findings suggest that monetary policy cooperation during crises produces financial market effects that go above and beyond conventional policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Arestis, Philip & Phelps, Peter, 2017. "Financial market implications of monetary policy coincidences: Evidence from the UK and Euro Area government-bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 88-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:88-102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2017.02.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443117301038
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.intfin.2017.02.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Craine, Roger & Martin, Vance L., 2008. "International monetary policy surprise spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 180-196, May.
    3. Bowman, David & Londono, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio, 2015. "U.S. unconventional monetary policy and transmission to emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 27-59.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    5. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating asset-market effects of unconventional monetary policy: a multi-country review [Uncertainty of interest rate path as a monetary policy instrument]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 749-799.
    6. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Demetriades, Panicos O., 2005. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate during the Asian crisis: identification through heteroscedasticity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-53, February.
    7. Altonji, Joseph G & Segal, Lewis M, 1996. "Small-Sample Bias in GMM Estimation of Covariance Structures," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 353-366, July.
    8. Chen, Qianying & Filardo, Andrew & He, Dong & Zhu, Feng, 2016. "Financial crisis, US unconventional monetary policy and international spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 62-81.
    9. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    10. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    11. Edda Claus & Iris Claus & Leo Krippner, 2014. "Asset markets and monetary policy shocks at the zero lower bound," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2014/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    12. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2016. "Towards Rules of the Monetary Game," Working Papers id:10373, eSocialSciences.
    13. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," Chapters, in: Peter Conti-Brown & Rosa M. Lastra (ed.), Research Handbook on Central Banking, chapter 20, pages 398-444, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Dirk Nitzsche & Gerard O'reilly, 2007. "UK Stock Returns and the Impact of Domestic Monetary Policy Shocks," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5‐6), pages 872-888, June.
    15. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & Reilly, Gerard O., 2010. "Monetary policy surprises and international bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 988-1002, October.
    16. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    17. Prachi Mishra & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2016. "Rules of the Monetary Game," Working Papers id:10533, eSocialSciences.
    18. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 331-367, June.
    19. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Ghosh, Atish R., 2016. "On the obstacles to international policy coordination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 25-40.
    20. Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long‐term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 447-466, November.
    21. Simon Gilchrist & Egon ZakrajŠEk, 2013. "The Impact of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs on Corporate Credit Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 29-57, December.
    22. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2016. "ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy: Market Impact and International Spillovers," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 36-74, May.
    23. Olivier Blanchard & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2017. "Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 563-585, August.
    24. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    25. Hussain, Syed Mujahid, 2011. "Simultaneous monetary policy announcements and international stock markets response: An intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 752-764, March.
    26. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Macroprudential Policy: What Instruments and How to Use them? Lessons From Country Experiences," IMF Working Papers 2011/238, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Wieladek, Tomasz & Haldane, Andrew & Roberts-Sklar, Matt & Young, Chris, 2016. "QE: the story so far," CEPR Discussion Papers 11691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    29. Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2011. "The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 3-43, March.
    30. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
    31. Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June.
    32. John B Taylor, 2013. "International monetary policy coordination: past, present and future," BIS Working Papers 437, Bank for International Settlements.
    33. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey, 2012. "U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises: Identification with Shifts and Rotations in the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1443-1453, October.
    34. John Ammer & Michiel De Pooter & Christopher J. Erceg & Steven B. Kamin, 2016. "International Spillovers of Monetary Policy," IFDP Notes 2016-02-08-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    35. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    36. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
    37. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Dirk Nitzsche & Gerard O'reilly, 2007. "UK Stock Returns and the Impact of Domestic Monetary Policy Shocks," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5‐6), pages 872-888, June.
    38. John Clark & Nathan Converse & Brahima Coulibaly & Steven B. Kamin, 2016. "Emerging Market Capital Flows and U.S. Monetary Policy," IFDP Notes 2016-10-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    39. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November.
    40. Eric M. Leeper, 2016. "Should Central Banks Care About Fiscal Rules?," NBER Working Papers 22800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Finance Discussion Papers 1101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jonathan Kearns & Andreas Schrimpf & Fan Dora Xia, 2023. "Explaining Monetary Spillovers: The Matrix Reloaded," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1535-1568, September.
    2. Bernhard, Severin & Ebner, Till, 2017. "Cross-border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Swiss asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-127.
    3. Claus, Edda & Claus, Iris & Krippner, Leo, 2018. "Asset market responses to conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks in the United States," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 270-282.
    4. Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Cakan, Esin, 2017. "The international REIT’s time-varying response to the U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic surprises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 640-653.
    5. Cieslak, Anna & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2019. "Non-monetary news in central bank communication," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-315.
    6. Edda Claus & Iris Claus & Leo Krippner, 2016. "Monetary Policy Spillovers across the Pacific when Interest Rates Are at the Zero Lower Bound," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 15(3), pages 1-27, Fall.
    7. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek & Stracca, Livio & Strasser, Georg, 2020. "Monetary policy and its transmission in a globalised world," Working Paper Series 2407, European Central Bank.
    8. Hoek, Jasper & Kamin, Steve & Yoldas, Emre, 2022. "Are higher U.S. interest rates always bad news for emerging markets?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Kishor, N. Kundan & Marfatia, Hardik A., 2013. "The time-varying response of foreign stock markets to U.S. monetary policy surprises: Evidence from the Federal funds futures market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
    10. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Measuring the Signaling Effect of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme at the Effective Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 87084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Fausch, Jürg & Sigonius, Markus, 2018. "The impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on the German stock market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 46-63.
    12. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2014. "Impact of uncertainty on high frequency response of the U.S. stock markets to the Fed's policy surprises," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 382-392.
    13. Carlo Rosa, 2012. "How "unconventional" are large-scale asset purchases? The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Staff Reports 560, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Bernd Hayo & Britta Niehof, 2011. "Identification Through Heteroscedasticity in a Multicountry and Multimarket Framework," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201124, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    15. Simon Gilchrist & Vivian Yue & Egon Zakrajšek, 2019. "U.S. Monetary Policy and International Bond Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(S1), pages 127-161, December.
    16. Sun, Rongrong, 2020. "Monetary policy announcements and market interest rates’ response: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    17. Jarociński, Marek, 2022. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    18. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Bermpei, Theodora, 2016. "What is the effect of unconventional monetary policy on bank performance?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 239-263.
    19. Kurov, Alexander & Olson, Eric & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara R., 2022. "When does the fed care about stock prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    20. Kiyotaka Nakashima & Masahiko Shibamoto & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Identifying Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks," Discussion Paper Series DP2017-05, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Apr 2017.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International; Monetary policy; Financial markets; Factor model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:88-102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.