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Are changes in foreign exchange reserves a good proxy for official intervention?

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  • Suardi, Sandy
  • Chang, Yuanchen

Abstract

Little is known about the adequacy of changes in reserves as a proxy for intervention despite its use in computing exchange market pressure index. This paper demonstrates the co-movement between monthly reserves changes and intervention is governed by intervention amount, the frequency of the intervention and the nature of intervention activity. We find purchases and sales of US dollars intervention produces correlation asymmetry in the US but not in Japan and Germany. Furthermore, the conditional correlation is stronger when intervention frequency and amount increase. Our results are robust to influence of key macroeconomic factors and revaluation effects on foreign reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Suardi, Sandy & Chang, Yuanchen, 2012. "Are changes in foreign exchange reserves a good proxy for official intervention?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 678-695.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:22:y:2012:i:4:p:678-695
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.04.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Idil Uz Akdogan, 2020. "Understanding the dynamics of foreign reserve management: The central bank intervention policy and the exchange rate fundamentals," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 161, pages 41-55.
    2. Patnaik, Ila & Felman, Joshua & Shah, Ajay, 2017. "An exchange market pressure measure for cross country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 62-77.
    3. Uz Akdogan, Idil, 2020. "Understanding the dynamics of foreign reserve management: The central bank intervention policy and the exchange rate fundamentals," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 41-55.
    4. ABBUY, Kwami Edem, 2018. "An Empirical Test for the Effectiveness of Central Bank Interventions in Foreign Exchange Markets: An Application to the Canadian and Swiss Central Banks," MPRA Paper 89647, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange reserves; Central bank intervention; Conditional correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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