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The impact of monetary policy decisions on stock returns: Evidence from Thailand

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  • Vithessonthi, Chaiporn
  • Techarongrojwong, Yaowaluk

Abstract

Although numerous studies have examined the effect of monetary policy on stock prices, empirical research in the international setting remains relatively scant. Therefore, this topic is reexamined in the context of Thailand. In a sample of 50 repurchase rate announcements of the Bank of Thailand during 2003–2009, our regression results suggest that the raw change in the repurchase rate has a negative effect on stock returns at the market level, which is inconsistent with the literature. Contrary to the results of numerous studies, we find that at the market level the expected change in the repurchase rate has a negative effect on stock returns and the unexpected change in the repurchase rate exhibits no effect on stock returns. However, the effect of the unexpected change in the repurchase rate on stock returns is evident at the firm level. Our findings also suggest that the stock market's response to the repurchase rate change is asymmetric. The unexpected change in the repurchase rate that is considered as good news has a negative effect on stock returns. Overall, the evidence lends support to the notion that the monetary policy announcements have a significant effect on stock prices and further adds to the debate on whether the creditability of the monetary authority may contribute to the stock market's response to the monetary policy actions.

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  • Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Techarongrojwong, Yaowaluk, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy decisions on stock returns: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 487-507.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:22:y:2012:i:3:p:487-507
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.02.003
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    2. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Stephanos Papadamou & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Central Bank Credibility’s Effect on Stock Exchange Returns’ Volatility: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-15, October.
    3. Papadamou, Stephanos & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2014. "Does central bank transparency affect stock market volatility?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 362-377.
    4. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Muhammad Shahbaz & Trinh Thi Mai & Moade Shubita, 2021. "Development of Vietnamese stock market: Influence of domestic macroeconomic environment and regional markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1435-1458, January.
    5. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2015. "Asymmetries on Closed End Country Funds Premium and Monetary Policy Announcements: An Approach Trough the Perspective of Foreign Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 29-65, july-Dece.
    6. Hassan Heidari & Arash Refah Kahriz & Yousef Mohammadzadeh, 2019. "Stock market behavior of pharmaceutical industry in Iran and macroeconomic factors," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 255-277, August.
    7. Prabu A, Edwin & Bhattacharyya, Indranil & Ray, Partha, 2016. "Is the stock market impervious to monetary policy announcements: Evidence from emerging India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 166-179.
    8. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Techarongrojwong, Yaowaluk, 2013. "Do monetary policy announcements affect stock prices in emerging market countries? The case of Thailand," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 446-469.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Repurchase rate; Stock market; Stock return; Thailand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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