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Asymmetric impacts of public and private investments on the non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia

Author

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  • Mensi, Walid
  • Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad
  • Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  • Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of four major macroeconomic variables (private investment, public investment, oil production and inflation) on non-oil GDP in the oil-based Saudi Arabia. To this end, we use the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and the causality-in-quantiles methods to measure the impact of these variables on non-oil GDP. The results show that past non-oil GDP shocks affect current non-oil GDP strongly in the short term. Moreover, a surge in public investment increases non-oil GDP in both the short- and long-run, while a negative private investment shock reduces non-oil GDP in both the short- and long-run. Furthermore, positive (negative) oil production shocks increase the non-oil GDP also in the short- and long-run. In addition, we find a positive relationship between negative and positive inflation shocks and non-oil GDP in the long run, while negative inflation shocks decrease non-oil GDP. Using the nonparametric causality-in- quantile approach, we find that causality-in-the mean and causality-in-the variance emanating from the four explanatory variables vary across the quantiles. Finally, non-oil GDP does not Granger cause these macroeconomic variables. Those non-standard macroeconomic results for this major oil exporter are different from those for well-diversified developed countries. Regardless, they have important implications for Saudi policy makers involved in the Vision 2030 initiative, international organizations and institutional investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Mensi, Walid & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2018. "Asymmetric impacts of public and private investments on the non-oil GDP of Saudi Arabia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 15-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:156:y:2018:i:c:p:15-30
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2017.10.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Abid, Mehdi & Alotaibi, Mohammed Naif, 2020. "Crude oil price and private sector of Saudi Arabia: Do globalization and financial development matter? New evidence from combined cointegration test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Mwahib Gasmelsied Ahmed Mohammed, 2024. "Analyzing GDP Growth Drivers in Saudi Arabia: Investment or Consumption: An Evidence-Based ARDL-Bound Test Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-18, April.
    3. Sayadi, Mohammad & Khoshkalam Khosroshahi, Musa, 2020. "Assessing Alternative Investment Policies in a Resource-Rich Capital-Scarce Country: Results from a DSGE analysis for Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Anis Ali, 2021. "Volatility of Oil Prices and Public Spending in Saudi Arabia: Sensitivity and Trend Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 165-172.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Saudi Arabia; Investments; Macroeconomic variables; Non-oil GDP; NARDL; Causality-in-quantiles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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