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Estimation and evaluation of the term structure of credit default swaps: An empirical study

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  • Chen, Ren-Raw
  • Cheng, Xiaolin
  • Liu, Bo

Abstract

Chen, Cheng, Fabozzi and Liu [Chen, Ren-Raw, Cheng, Xiaolin, Fabozzi, Frank, Liu, Bo, 2008. An explicit, multi- factor credit default swap pricing model with correlated factors. J. Financial Quantitative Anal. 43 (1), 123-160] provide an explicit solution to the value of the credit default swap when the interest rate and the hazard rate are correlated. They also provide empirical evidence to support the model with transaction prices. In this paper, we extend their empirical work to study the term structure of CDS spreads by using a matrix CDS dataset from J. P. Morgan Chase. Matrix data contain interpolated prices based on traders' expectations, which are often criticized as being "unreal". However, the benefit of this matrix dataset is that it contains the entire credit spread curves, which allows us to understand the cross-sectional variation of the credit risk. The empirical results show that the parameters of the model are highly significant and it captures most of the cross-sectional as well as time series variation.

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  • Chen, Ren-Raw & Cheng, Xiaolin & Liu, Bo, 2008. "Estimation and evaluation of the term structure of credit default swaps: An empirical study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 339-349, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:43:y:2008:i:3:p:339-349
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    1. Gurdip Bakshi & Dilip B. Madan & Frank X. Zhang, 2001. "Understanding the role of recovery in default risk models: empirical comparisons and implied recovery rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Chen, Ren-Raw & Sopranzetti, Ben J., 2003. "The Valuation of Default-Triggered Credit Derivatives," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 359-382, June.
    3. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    4. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
    6. Chen, Ren-Raw & Cheng, Xiaolin & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Liu, Bo, 2008. "An Explicit, Multi-Factor Credit Default Swap Pricing Model with Correlated Factors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 123-160, March.
    7. Brown, Stephen J & Dybvig, Philip H, 1986. "The Empirical Implications of the Cox, Ingersoll, Ross Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 617-630, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2014. "Are All Credit Default Swap Databases Equal?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(4), pages 677-713, September.
    2. Hong-Bae Kim & Tae-Jun Park, 2015. "The Behavior Comparison between Mean Reversion and Jump Diffusion of CDS Spread," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 3(4), pages 8-21.
    3. Guarin, Alexander & Liu, Xiaoquan & Ng, Wing Lon, 2014. "Recovering default risk from CDS spreads with a nonlinear filter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 87-104.
    4. Mayordomo, Sergio, 2009. "Are There Arbitrage Opportunities in Credit Derivatives Markets? A New Test and an Application to the Case of CDS and ASPs," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb096303, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    5. Guarin, Alexander & Liu, Xiaoquan & Ng, Wing Lon, 2011. "Enhancing credit default swap valuation with meshfree methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(3), pages 805-813, November.
    6. Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña & Juan Romo, 2011. "A New Test of Statistical Arbitrage with Applications to Credit Derivatives Markets," CNMV Working Papers CNMV Working Papers no. 4, CNMV- Spanish Securities Markets Commission - Research and Statistics Department.

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