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The effects of population ageing on health care expenditure: A Bayesian VAR analysis using data from Italy

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  • Lopreite, Milena
  • Mauro, Marianna

Abstract

Currently, the dynamics of the population have raised concerns about the future sustainability of Italy’s national health system. The increasing proportion of people over the age of 65 could lead to a higher incidence of chronic-degenerative diseases and a greater demand for health and social care with a consequent impact on health spending. Although in recent years the quantity and quality of works on the relationship between ageing and health expenditure has increased substantially these works do not always obtain similar results.

Suggested Citation

  • Lopreite, Milena & Mauro, Marianna, 2017. "The effects of population ageing on health care expenditure: A Bayesian VAR analysis using data from Italy," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(6), pages 663-674.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:hepoli:v:121:y:2017:i:6:p:663-674
    DOI: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2017.03.015
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    Cited by:

    1. Guanshen Dou & Yilin Zhang & Yunzhen He & Qiaoyun Huang & Yingfeng Ye & Xinyu Zhang & Weibing Wang & Xiaohua Ying, 2019. "Impact of the Global Budget Payment System on Expenditure of Cardiovascular Diseases: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis in Shanghai, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-14, April.
    2. Marta Dell’Ovo & Francesca Torrieri & Alessandra Oppio & Stefano Capolongo & Marco Gola & Andrea Brambilla, 2023. "The Enhancement of Special-Use Real Estate Properties: The Case of Hospital Facilities," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-23, August.
    3. Hao Yang & Shaobin Wang & Zhoupeng Ren & Haimeng Liu & Yun Tong & Na Wang, 2022. "Life Expectancy, Air Pollution, and Socioeconomic Factors: A Multivariate Time-Series Analysis of Beijing City, China," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 979-994, August.
    4. Ángel Denche-Zamorano & María Mendoza-Muñoz & Jorge Carlos-Vivas & Laura Muñoz-Bermejo & Jorge Rojo-Ramos & Frano Giakoni-Ramírez & Andrés Godoy-Cumillaf & Sabina Barrios-Fernandez, 2022. "Associations between Physical Activity Level and Health Services Use in Spanish Adults," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Caravaggio, Nicola & Resce, Giuliano, 2023. "Enhancing Healthcare Cost Forecasting: A Machine Learning Model for Resource Allocation in Heterogeneous Regions," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp23090, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    6. Ángel Denche-Zamorano & Laura Muñoz-Bermejo & Jorge Carlos-Vivas & María Mendoza-Muñoz & Juan Manuel Franco-García & Jorge Rojo-Ramos & Alejandro Vega-Muñoz & Nicolás Contreras-Barraza & Sabina Barrio, 2022. "A Cross-Sectional Study about the Associations between Physical Activity Level, Self-Perceived Health Perception and Mental Health in Informal Caregivers of Elderly or People with Chronic Conditions i," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-14, April.
    7. Muhammad Azam & Abdul Majid Awan, 2022. "Health is Wealth: A Dynamic SUR Approach of Examining a Link Between Climate Changes and Human Health Expenditures," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 505-528, September.
    8. Lopreite, Milena & Zhu, Zhen, 2020. "The effects of ageing population on health expenditure and economic growth in China: A Bayesian-VAR approach," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    9. Saqib Amin & Ruhamah Yousaf & Muhammad Awais Anwar & Noman Arshed, 2022. "Assessing the impact of diversity and ageing population on health expenditure of United States," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 913-929, March.
    10. Andrea Riganti, 2021. "Containing costs in the Italian local healthcare market," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 1001-1014, May.
    11. Lopreite, Milena & Misuraca, Michelangelo & Puliga, Michelangelo, 2023. "An analysis of the thematic evolution of ageing and healthcare expenditure using word embedding: A scoping review of policy implications," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    12. Usman Shakoor & Mudassar Rashid & Ashfaque Ali Baloch & Muhammad Iftikhar ul Husnain & Abdul Saboor, 2021. "How Aging Population Affects Health Care Expenditures in Pakistan? A Bayesian VAR Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(2), pages 585-607, January.
    13. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Latjin, Mirani, 2022. "The effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in EU economies: A panel vector autoregressive approach," MPRA Paper 113596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. D'Andreamatteo, Antonio & Neri, Francesca & Antonucci, Gianluca & Sargiacomo, Massimo, 2024. "Immigration, policies of integration and healthcare expenditure: A longitudinal analysis of the INHS (2002‒2018)," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    15. R. Rupeika-Apoga & I. Romanova & L. Bule & Y.E. Thalassinos, 2019. "The Impact of Population Ageing and Social Stratification: The Case of Latvia," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 49-63.
    16. Karamanis, Dimitrios & Kechrinioti, Alexandra, 2023. "The Greek-Turkish rivalry: A Bayesian VAR approach," MPRA Paper 116827, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Xueqian Song & Yongping Wei & Wei Deng & Shaoyao Zhang & Peng Zhou & Ying Liu & Jiangjun Wan, 2019. "Spatio-Temporal Distribution, Spillover Effects and Influences of China’s Two Levels of Public Healthcare Resources," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health care expenditure; Population ageing; B-VAR models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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