IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/forpol/v160y2024ics1389934124000078.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The discount rate differential required for harvesting-by-dice-rolling to outperform optimal rotation planning

Author

Listed:
  • Foppert, John D.

Abstract

Although the cost of capital has enormous bearing on the financial performance of forestry investment projects, the dynamics of this factor of production are under-theorized in modern forest economic thought and its potential susceptibility to management is under-analyzed by forest managers, investors, and scholars. This study illustrates the importance of the cost of capital relative to the choice of rotation age by modeling the discount rate differential required for fully randomized harvesting strategies to yield the same expected capitalized returns as optimal rotation planning. For numerical simulations of radiata pine plantations in New Zealand and benchmark discount rates between 1% and 10%, a crude dice-rolling strategy required discount rate concessions from 0.31 to 3.35 percentage points to match the performance of optimal rotations. “Optimal” random harvesting strategies—with stochastic harvest probabilities specified to maximize expected value—required discount rate concessions lower than one percentage point across the entire range of benchmark rates. This paper concludes with an exploration of potential mechanisms through which the cost of capital could be endogenized in forest economic analysis and practical investment management.

Suggested Citation

  • Foppert, John D., 2024. "The discount rate differential required for harvesting-by-dice-rolling to outperform optimal rotation planning," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:160:y:2024:i:c:s1389934124000078
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103154
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934124000078
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103154?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yoram Barzel, 1997. "Measurement Cost and the Organization of Markets," Chapters, in: Svetozar Pejovich (ed.), The Economic Foundations of Property Rights, chapter 13, pages 171-192, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Gregory S. Amacher & Markku Ollikainen & Erkki A. Koskela, 2009. "Economics of Forest Resources," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012480, April.
    3. Fama, Eugene F., 1986. "Term premiums and default premiums in money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 175-196, September.
    4. Chang, Sun Joseph & Deegen, Peter, 2011. "Pressler's indicator rate formula as a guide for forest management," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 258-266, August.
    5. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Jensen, Michael C, 1969. "Risk, The Pricing of Capital Assets, and the Evaluation of Investment Portfolios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 167-247, April.
    7. Newman, D.H., 2002. "Forestry's golden rule and the development of the optimal forest rotation literature," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 5-27.
    8. Sayan Chatterjee & Michael Lubatkin & William S. Schulze, 1999. "Toward a strategic theory of risk premium : Moving beyond CAPM," Post-Print hal-02276725, HAL.
    9. Gong, Peichen & Löfgren, Karl Gustaf, 2007. "Market and welfare implications of the reservation price strategy for forest harvest decisions," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 217-243, November.
    10. Yakov Amihud & Haim Mendelson, 2012. "Liquidity, the Value of the Firm, and Corporate Finance," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 24(1), pages 17-32, March.
    11. Manley, Bruce & Niquidet, Kurt, 2017. "How does real option value compare with Faustmann value when log prices follow fractional Brownian motion?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(P1), pages 76-84.
    12. Clair H. Redmond & Frederick W. Cubbage, 1988. "Portfolio Risk and Returns from Timber Asset Investments," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 64(4), pages 325-337.
    13. Changyou Sun & Daowei Zhang, 2001. "Assessing the Financial Performance of Forestry-Related Investment Vehicles: Capital Asset Pricing Model vs. Arbitrage Pricing Theory," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 617-628.
    14. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    15. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    16. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
    17. Chang, Sun Joseph & Zhang, Fan, 2023. "Active timber management by outsourcing stumpage price uncertainty with the American put option," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    18. Brukas, Vilis & Jellesmark Thorsen, Bo & Helles, Finn & Tarp, Peter, 2001. "Discount rate and harvest policy: implications for Baltic forestry," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 143-156, June.
    19. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
    20. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2004. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 25-46, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    2. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    3. Turan G. Bali & Robert F. Engle & Yi Tang, 2017. "Dynamic Conditional Beta Is Alive and Well in the Cross Section of Daily Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3760-3779, November.
    4. Javid, Attiya Yasmin & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2008. "Testing multifactor capital asset pricing model in case of Pakistani market," MPRA Paper 37341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Joel M. Vanden, 2021. "Equilibrium asset pricing and the cross section of expected returns," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 153-186, June.
    6. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara, 2012. "An international CAPM for partially integrated markets: Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2473-2493.
    7. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December.
    8. Hollstein, Fabian, 2020. "Estimating beta: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Sonntag, Dominik, 2018. "Die Theorie der fairen geometrischen Rendite [The Theory of Fair Geometric Returns]," MPRA Paper 87082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Selahattin GURIS & Aynur PALA, 2014. "Equity Returns, Firm-Specific Characteristics and Sector Rotation: Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 264-276.
    11. Winkler, Julian, 2023. "Managing fundamentals versus preferences: Re-balancing portfolios and stock returns," MPRA Paper 119149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2010. "Asset-pricing anomalies and spanning: Multivariate and multifactor tests with heavy-tailed distributions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 763-782, September.
    13. M Hashem Pesaran & Takashi Yamagata, 2024. "Testing for Alpha in Linear Factor Pricing Models with a Large Number of Securities," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 407-460.
    14. Misund, Bard & Mohn, Klaus, 2014. "Exploration Risk in Oil & Gas Shareholder Returns," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2014/4, University of Stavanger.
    15. Andrei Salem Gonçalves & Robert Aldo Iquiapaza & Aureliano Angel Bressan, 2012. "Latent Fundamentals Arbitrage with a Mixed Effects Factor Model," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 10(3), pages 317-335.
    16. Baek, Seungho & Bilson, John F.O., 2015. "Size and value risk in financial firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 295-326.
    17. Michail Koubouros & Dimitrios Malliaropulos & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2010. "Long-run cash flow and discount-rate risks in the cross-section of US returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 227-244.
    18. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2002. "Mutual fund performance and seemingly unrelated assets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 315-349, March.
    19. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Foulquier, Philippe, 2012. "Financial market integration: Theory and empirical results," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 382-394.
    20. Bruce Hearn, 2016. "A Comparison of the Efficacy of Liquidity, Momentum, Size and Book‐to‐Market Value Factors in Equity Pricing on a Heterogeneous Sample: Evidence from Asia," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(4), pages 253-330, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:160:y:2024:i:c:s1389934124000078. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/forpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.