Urbanization's impact on sustained yield management as perceived by forestry professionals in central New York

The urbanizing forested landscape in the United States is creating challenges for resource managers and land-use planners. Logistic regression models developed to assess urbanization's effect on forestland for the mid-Atlantic and southern states found that population density was the best predictor of reduced commercial harvest opportunity. We applied similar methodologies in central New York to assess urbanization's impact on sustained yield management. We surveyed professional foresters in a five-county area and asked them to rate the potential for sustained yield management by township. We utilized those expert opinions to develop a logistic regression model that predicted the probability of sustained yield management in central New York while exploring the factors that influence sustained yield management. We found that road density was the primary variable influencing the likelihood of sustained yield management in central New York. Population density, which is highly correlated with road density, also proved to be a strong determinant of sustained yield management. The results suggest that the potential for sustained yield management approaches 10% at a road density of 3Â mi/mi2, 50% at 2.5Â mi/mi2, and 90% at 2Â mi/mi2. The corresponding figures for population density were 150 people per square mile (ppsm), 75Â ppsm and 25Â ppsm, respectively. In addition, we determined that the probability of sustained yield management approaches 100% for a property that is approximately 30Â acres and drops to 50% for a parcel that is between 15 and 20Â acres. This study provides resource managers and land-use planners a guide in which to effectively gauge the cumulative effect of urbanization on the forest resource in central New York. Unlike other regions of the United States, central New York's growth pattern is characterized by stagnant population growth (declining in some places) combined with continued urbanization and low-density sprawl. Because growth patterns vary regionally, different indicators may be needed to accurately assess the urbanizing forested landscape across the United States.