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The time-varying role of timberland in long-term, mixed-asset portfolios under the mean conditional value-at-risk framework

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  • Restrepo, Hector
  • Zhang, Weiyi
  • Mei, Bin

Abstract

We investigate the time-varying role of timberland in a mixed-asset portfolio using 15-year rolling windows. Before running portfolio optimizations, we first test normality of return distributions of selected assets including private- and public-equity timberlands, private-equity commercial real estate, public REITs, S&P 500 index, short- and long-term government bonds, and long-term corporate bonds. Given that returns are not normally distributed, we use conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) in lieu of standard deviation as the risk measure and investigate optimal asset allocations under the mean-CVaR framework. Results reveal that weight on timberland in the mixed-asset portfolio does vary with time for both the lowest risk portfolio and the tangency portfolio due to its changing return-to-risk ratio and correlation with other assets. In particular, private-equity timberland asset plays a more significant role in the constrained optimal portfolios invested by 15-year closed-end funds maturing in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Restrepo, Hector & Zhang, Weiyi & Mei, Bin, 2020. "The time-varying role of timberland in long-term, mixed-asset portfolios under the mean conditional value-at-risk framework," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:113:y:2020:i:c:s1389934119306148
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2020.102136
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Petri P. Karenlampi, 2022. "Two strategies for boreal forestry with goodwill in capitalization," Papers 2205.06744, arXiv.org.
    2. Petri P. Kärenlampi, 2022. "Two Manifestations of Market Premium in the Capitalization of Carbon Forest Estates," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-26, April.

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