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Finding equilibrium in continuous-cover forest management sensitive to interest rates using an advanced matrix transition model

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  • Roessiger, Joerg
  • Kulla, Ladislav
  • Bošeľa, Michal

Abstract

Continuous-cover forestry is a management alternative that seeks to provide more diverse forests for continual multi-purpose benefits. Whether there is an economically-optimal equilibrium of uneven-aged forest can be tested deterministically by varying interest rate i. To answer this question, optimisation focused on maximising the net present value for the long-term period was performed using the Subplex algorithm integrated within a density-dependent stand-level matrix transition model. A regular-grid inventory of mixed uneven-aged forests in the West Carpathians, Central Slovakia, was used to parameterise the model. The results showed that a steady state can be reached that is characterised either by a near equilibrium at an i of 1% and higher, or by a continuous fluctuation at an i of 0% and 0.5%. When starting optimisation with a real stand situation with i of 2% and higher, deviations from an equilibrium state appeared both at the beginning and end of the optimisation run. The conclusion is therefore to only interpret the middle-stabilised sequence from the long-term optimisation results as a real equilibrium. Considering the individual target diameter specific for crown size and stem quality of trees within the extended matrix model improved the financial results by 7%. Crown size, representing tree vigour and growth potential, was more important for the improvement of financial results compared to stem quality related to timber price.

Suggested Citation

  • Roessiger, Joerg & Kulla, Ladislav & Bošeľa, Michal, 2018. "Finding equilibrium in continuous-cover forest management sensitive to interest rates using an advanced matrix transition model," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 83-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:foreco:v:33:y:2018:i:c:p:83-94
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfe.2018.12.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhou, Mo & Buongiorno, Joseph, 2011. "Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 402-410, June.
    2. Johnston, Craig M.T. & Withey, Patrick, 2017. "Managing Forests for Carbon and Timber: A Markov Decision Model of Uneven-aged Forest Management With Risk," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 31-39.
    3. Janne Rämö & Olli Tahvonen, 2017. "Optimizing the Harvest Timing in Continuous Cover Forestry," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(4), pages 853-868, August.
    4. Sinha, Ankur & Rämö, Janne & Malo, Pekka & Kallio, Markku & Tahvonen, Olli, 2017. "Optimal management of naturally regenerating uneven-aged forests," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(3), pages 886-900.
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