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Sovereign default risk, overconfident investors and diverse beliefs: Theory and evidence from a new dataset on outstanding credit default swaps

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  • Janus, Thorsten
  • Jinjarak, Yothin
  • Uruyos, Manachaya

Abstract

In standard public finance theory a government's cost of borrowing depends on the common beliefs held by rational investors regarding default risk. We advance understanding of the effects of diverse beliefs and overconfidence among investors in their ability to assess the sovereign's creditworthiness. Theoretically, we find that demand for insurance against default is positively related to the absolute difference between the market price of sovereign risk and the risk forecasted by the economy's fundamentals. We find preliminary support for this prediction in a newly available dataset on sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs): after controlling for the size of the public debt, the absolute size of the gap between the actual and forecasted spreads is positively related to the value of outstanding CDSs.

Suggested Citation

  • Janus, Thorsten & Jinjarak, Yothin & Uruyos, Manachaya, 2013. "Sovereign default risk, overconfident investors and diverse beliefs: Theory and evidence from a new dataset on outstanding credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 330-336.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:9:y:2013:i:3:p:330-336
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2012.11.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2020. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Activity in the Asia Pacific REIT Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2016. "Overconfidence And Real Estate Research: A Survey Of The Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    4. Peng, Emma Y. & Yan, An & Yan, Meng, 2016. "Accounting accruals, heterogeneous investor beliefs, and stock returns," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 88-103.
    5. Liu, Feng & Kalotay, Egon & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Assessing sovereign default risk: A bottom-up approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 525-542.
    6. Mahmoud Hijjawi & Chyi Lin Lee & Jufri Marzuki, 2021. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Governance in Affecting Australian Listed Construction and Property Firms’ Trading Activity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-15, September.
    7. Clark, Ephraim & Kassimatis, Konstantinos, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects on emerging-markets sovereign credit spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-13.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; Fiscal capacity; Sovereign default; Market expectation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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