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Stress testing OTC derivatives: Clearing reforms and market frictions

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  • Casu, Barbara
  • Kalotychou, Elena
  • Katsoulis, Petros

Abstract

We develop a stress-testing network model calibrated to the largest banks and investment funds in over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets. We examine the impact of the mandatory collateralisation of bilateral OTC derivatives on liquidity, counterparty, and systemic risks, as well as the impact of market frictions on participants’ ability to withstand liquidity shocks. The collateralisation of bilateral trades reduces counterparty and systemic risks but increases the prominence of liquidity-driven defaults and the potential for the central counterparty to transmit losses. Frictions such as fire sales, delayed payments, and no partial payments by defaulted counterparties greatly increase liquidity risk and systemic losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Casu, Barbara & Kalotychou, Elena & Katsoulis, Petros, 2025. "Stress testing OTC derivatives: Clearing reforms and market frictions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:77:y:2025:i:c:s1572308925000178
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101388
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central clearing; Uncleared margin rules; Liquidity risk; Stress testing; Financial stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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