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A network approach to interbank contagion risk in South Africa

Author

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  • Mananga, Pierre Nkou
  • Lin, Shiqiang
  • Zhang, Hairui

Abstract

We investigate the resilience of the South African banking sector by applying a dynamic agent-based model and the DebtRank algorithm. In contrast to previous studies focusing on listed banks, our methodology includes both listed and non-listed institutions that make up the banking industry, thereby capturing the systemic importance and vulnerability of all banks within the interbank market network. Our findings indicate that while larger banks exhibit greater systemic importance, a statistically significant correlation exists between a bank’s interbank-lending-to-equity ratio and vulnerability. Moreover, a bank’s size and specific interbank activities influence its systemic contribution, both in terms of importance and vulnerability. These insights offer policymakers an empirically grounded framework for improving financial stability monitoring and risk mitigation efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Mananga, Pierre Nkou & Lin, Shiqiang & Zhang, Hairui, 2025. "A network approach to interbank contagion risk in South Africa," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:77:y:2025:i:c:s1572308925000154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101386
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; Interbank network; Contagion risk; Agent-based; Modelling; DebtRank;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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