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An ETF-based measure of stock price fragility

Author

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  • Galindo Gil, Hamilton
  • Lazo-Paz, Renato

Abstract

Equity mutual fund flows are commonly employed to measure stock price fragility - a stock’s exposure to non-fundamental demand risk. However, this approach may be biased by confounding fundamental information, potentially underestimating risk exposure. We propose an alternative method that uses the primary market data of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This approach overcomes many limitations of mutual fund data, incorporates the influence of a broader set of investor demand, and strongly predicts stock return volatility and return comovement. Our study highlights the significant role that the arbitrage trading activity of ETFs play in signaling non-fundamental demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Galindo Gil, Hamilton & Lazo-Paz, Renato, 2025. "An ETF-based measure of stock price fragility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:72:y:2025:i:c:s1386418124000648
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2024.100946
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-fundamental demand risk; Fragility; Mutual funds; ETFs; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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