Stay single or get Married?: Impact of Long-term care insurance on Individuals’ marriage decisions

This study investigates the impact of long-term care insurance11For simplicity, this paper abbreviates “Long-term Care Insurance” as “LTCI”. on marriage decisions, representing a crucial gap in the literature on the influence of policy on marriage decisions. Marriage is, to some extent, an economic contract, enabling couples to manage risks through shared resources. However, with the introduction of LTCI, the role of marriage as a risk-buffering tool has diminished. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies and a difference-in-differences-in-differences methodology, this study leverages the quasi-natural experiment of China's LTCI pilot policy to assess its influence on marriage probability. The findings reveal that LTCI significantly reduces the likelihood of marriage, as it diminishes individuals’ need for care from spouses and children, weakening economic motivations to marry. Mechanism analysis shows that LTCI reduces individuals' reliance on spousal and child care in old age by providing professional care services. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis shows a more pronounced effect among men and younger individuals. These results offer novel insights into the broader socioeconomic implications of LTCI policies, highlighting how public care programs can reshape social structures and individual decision-making. This study contributes to the literature by exploring how the provision of public care services influences marriage behaviors, demonstrating the intersection of social security policies and personal life choices.