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Is Bitcoin the best safe haven against geopolitical risk ?

Author

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  • Chibane, Messaoud
  • Janson, Nathalie

Abstract

We revisit the ability of well-known safe havens to protect U.S equity against geopolitical risk. Using S&P 500 and GPR index weekly data we estimate a crash model where the equity crash probability is driven by geopolitical risk. We find that Bitcoin and the Swiss Franc function as safe havens in relation to geopolitical risk in times of market crashes while Gold and Treasury bonds do not. Our results show that the protective aspects of Bitcoin and the Swiss Franc mainly show through large stock market moves rather than during moderate variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Chibane, Messaoud & Janson, Nathalie, 2025. "Is Bitcoin the best safe haven against geopolitical risk ?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:74:y:2025:i:c:s1544612324015721
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.106543
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geopolitical risk; S&P 500; Safe haven; Market crash;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E14 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Austrian; Evolutionary; Institutional
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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