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Impacts of Donald Trump's tweets on volatilities in the European stock markets

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  • Nishimura, Yusaku
  • Sun, Bianxia

Abstract

This study investigates whether political news from Donald J. Trump affects European stock markets. We use realized volatility and the HAR-RV model to examine the effect of Trump's tweets on the stock market volatility in Germany, France, and the UK during his last presidential term. Results indicate that Trump's tweets positively impact volatilities in European stock markets, with these impacts increasing as attention to his tweets rises. The effect on the UK stock market is relatively weaker. The empirical results indicate that Trump's tweets influence global stock markets beyond the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Nishimura, Yusaku & Sun, Bianxia, 2025. "Impacts of Donald Trump's tweets on volatilities in the European stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:72:y:2025:i:c:s1544612324015204
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.106491
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