IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v69y2024ipas1544612324011061.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The time-varying interaction of northbound capital flows and stock market performance in China

Author

Listed:
  • He, Yun
  • Li, Wei
  • Tan, Xiaofen
  • Wang, Yufan

Abstract

This study employs the SV-TVP-SVAR model to investigate the dynamic interactions between northbound capital and stock market performance in China, highlighting the time-varying statistical relationships. The findings reveal that the influence of market returns on northbound capital is predominantly short-term, exhibiting negative feedback, which helps stabilize the market during periods of extreme volatility. However, during market reversals, northbound capital shows positive feedback, correlating with improving stock returns. Regarding predictability, while northbound capital provides some predictive power for stock returns, this influence diminishes quickly. The study further notes that retail investors tend to imitate the high-frequency trading patterns of northbound capital.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Yun & Li, Wei & Tan, Xiaofen & Wang, Yufan, 2024. "The time-varying interaction of northbound capital flows and stock market performance in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:69:y:2024:i:pa:s1544612324011061
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.106076
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612324011061
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106076?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Porras, Eva & Ülkü, Numan, 2015. "Foreigners’ trading and stock returns in Spain," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 111-126.
    2. Bradrania, Reza & Wu, Winston, 2023. "Foreign institutions, local investors and momentum trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 40-64.
    3. Stoffman, Noah, 2014. "Who trades with whom? Individuals, institutions, and returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 50-75.
    4. Renhui Fu & Fang Gao & Yi Zhao, 2024. "The capital market consequences of stock market liberalisation: Evidence from Mainland‐Hong Kong Stock Connect Programs in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 64(4), pages 3275-3299, December.
    5. Bian, Jiangze & Chan, Kalok & Han, Bing & Shi, Donghui, 2023. "Cross-border equity flows and information transmission: Evidence from Chinese stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Múnera, Daimer J. & Agudelo, Diego A., 2022. "Who moved my liquidity? Liquidity evaporation in emerging markets in periods of financial uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Wu, Ming & Ohk, Ki Yool, 2023. "Who benefits more? Shanghai-Hong Kong stock Connect—“Through Train”," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 409-427.
    8. Baltzer, Markus & Jank, Stephan & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2019. "Who trades on momentum?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 56-74.
    9. Ingomar Krohn & Vladyslav Sushko & Witit Synsatayakul, 2023. "Foreign investor feedback trading in an emerging financial market," BIS Working Papers 1154, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Zhiguo He & Yuehan Wang & Xiaoquan Zhu, 2023. "The Stock Connect to China," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 125-130, May.
    11. Bing, Tao & Ma, Hongkun, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic effect on trading and returns: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 384-396.
    12. Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2017. "Trading of foreign investors and stock returns in an emerging market - Evidence from Vietnam," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 88-93.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bing, Tao & Ma, Hongkun, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic effect on trading and returns: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 384-396.
    2. Fotini Economou & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Bartosz Gebka & Vasileios Kallinterakis, 2022. "Feedback trading: a review of theory and empirical evidence," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 429-476, February.
    3. Agudelo, Diego A. & Múnera, Daimer J., 2023. "Who are the vectors of contagion? Evidence from emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Liu, Qiming & Liu, Zhenya & Moussa, Faten & Mu, Yuhao, 2024. "International capital flow in a period of high inflation: The case of China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    5. Bradrania, Reza & Wu, Winston, 2023. "Foreign institutions, local investors and momentum trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 40-64.
    6. Onishchenko, Olena & Zhao, Jing & Kongahawatte, Sampath & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda, 2024. "Investor heterogeneity and anchoring-induced momentum," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    7. Kobana Abukari & Isaac Otchere, 2020. "Dominance of hybrid contratum strategies over momentum and contrarian strategies: half a century of evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(4), pages 471-505, December.
    8. Mohamed S. Ahmed & John A. Doukas, 2021. "Revisiting disposition effect and momentum: a quantile regression perspective," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1087-1128, April.
    9. Eraslan, Veysel & Omole, John & Sensoy, Ahmet & Ozdamar, Melisa, 2022. "Other people's money: A comparison of institutional investors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    10. Victoria Dobrynskaya, 2017. "Dynamic Momentum and Contrarian Trading," HSE Working papers WP BRP 61/FE/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    11. Numan Ülkü & Petar Petrov, 2015. "How Reliable Are the Findings of ‘Foreign’ Investor Studies That Use TIC Data? A Look from the Host Market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 521-553, December.
    12. Camillo Lento & Nikola Gradojevic, 2021. "S&P 500 Index Price Spillovers around the COVID-19 Market Meltdown," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, July.
    13. Onuk, Cagri Berk & Fodor, Andrew, 2023. "Turkish currency crunch: Examining behavior across investor types," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    14. Wang, Ye & Liu, Xufeng & Wan, Die, 2023. "Stock market openness and ESG performance: Evidence from Shanghai-Hong Kong connect program," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1306-1319.
    15. Boubekeur Baba & Güven Sevil, 2021. "Bayesian analysis of time-varying interactions between stock returns and foreign equity flows," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, December.
    16. Bhaskar Chhimwal & Varadraj Bapat, 2021. "Comparative Study of Momentum and Contrarian Behavior of Different Investors: Evidence from the Indian Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(1), pages 19-53, March.
    17. Anginer, Deniz & Han, Xue Snow & Yildizhan, Celim, 2017. "Do Individual Investors Ignore Transaction Costs?," MPRA Paper 89941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Tran Huong Thi Thanh & Le Ha Thi Thu, 2021. "The Impact of Financial Inclusion on Poverty Reduction," Asian Journal of Law and Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 95-119, April.
    19. Zhang, Dongyang & Zheng, Wenping, 2022. "Does COVID-19 make the firms’ performance worse? Evidence from the Chinese listed companies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 560-570.
    20. Chen, Zhijuan & Lin, William T. & Ma, Changfeng, 2019. "Do individual investors demand or provide liquidity? New evidence from dividend announcements," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Northbound capital; Market return; Time-varying trading pattern; SV-TVP-SVAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:69:y:2024:i:pa:s1544612324011061. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.