IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v60y2024ics1544612323012126.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gas price shocks, the current account, and the real exchange rate: An empirical analysis for the EU

Author

Listed:
  • Cuestas, Juan Carlos
  • Monfort, Mercedes
  • Ordóñez, Javier

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyse how gas price shocks affect the real exchange rate (RER) and the current account (CA) for a panel of countries from the EU28. We estimate VAR models and account for the possibility of asymmetric effects in gas price shocks. Our results show that the effects on the RER and CA are short-lived and that there are asymmetries in some cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Monfort, Mercedes & Ordóñez, Javier, 2024. "Gas price shocks, the current account, and the real exchange rate: An empirical analysis for the EU," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:60:y:2024:i:c:s1544612323012126
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104840
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323012126
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104840?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fornaro, Luca & Wolf, Martin, 2023. "The scars of supply shocks: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 18-36.
    2. Golub, Stephen S, 1983. "Oil Prices and Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 576-593, September.
    3. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Mercedes Monfort & Bojan Shimbov, 2022. "Has the relationship between the real exchange rate and its fundamentals changed over time?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 68-89.
    4. Javier Ordóñez & Hector Sala & José Silva, 2015. "Real unit labour costs in Eurozone countries: drivers and clusters," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.
    6. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2023. "A Note on Temporary Supply Shocks with Aggregate Demand Inertia," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 241-258, June.
    7. Philip R. Lane & Barbara Pels, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances in Europe," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp397, IIIS.
    8. Christidou, Maria & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2010. "Purchasing Power Parity and the European single currency: Some new evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1116-1123, September.
    9. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    10. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    11. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    12. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen D Roldᮠ & Esteve, 2014. "Sustainability of external imbalances in the OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 441-449, February.
    13. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Testing for Non-linearity," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-24.
    14. Paul Krugman, 1983. "Oil Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 259-284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2005. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-228.
    16. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Ordóñez, Javier, 2018. "Oil prices and unemployment in the UK before and after the crisis: A Bayesian VAR approach. A note," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 200-207.
    17. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2018. "Oil price shocks and unemployment in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 164-173.
    18. Coleman, Simeon & Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2021. "Panel cointegration, quantile regressions, asymmetric adjustments and crises: The case of EU current accounts," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(4).
    19. Juncal Cunado & Luis A Gil-Alana & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2010. "European Current Account Sustainability: New Evidence Based On Unit Roots and Fractional Integration," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 177-187, Spring.
    20. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    21. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
    22. Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Natalia Luqui & Juncal Cunado, 2008. "Trade Balance and Exchange Rate: Unit Roots, Co‐integration and Long Memory in the US and the UK," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(1), pages 59-74, February.
    23. Ordóñez, Javier & Monfort, Mercedes & Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2019. "Oil prices, unemployment and the financial crisis in oil-importing countries: The case of Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 625-634.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Uzoma-Nwosu, Damian Chidozie & David-Wayas, Maria Onyinye, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 on the interrelationship among oil prices, stock prices and exchange rates in selected oil exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Katsuya Ito, 2012. "The impact of oil price volatility on the macroeconomy in Russia," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 695-702, June.
    3. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2018. "What determines the long-term correlation between oil prices and exchange rates?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 140-152.
    4. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    5. Jung, Young Cheol & Das, Anupam & McFarlane, Adian, 2020. "The asymmetric relationship between the oil price and the US-Canada exchange rate," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 198-206.
    6. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 118-125.
    7. Nouira, Ridha & Hadj Amor, Thouraya & Rault, Christophe, 2019. "Oil price fluctuations and exchange rate dynamics in the MENA region: Evidence from non-causality-in-variance and asymmetric non-causality tests," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-171.
    8. Ben Salem, Leila & Nouira, Ridha & Saafi, Sami & Rault, Christophe, 2024. "How do oil prices affect the GDP and its components? New evidence from a time-varying threshold model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    9. Jozef Baruník & Evžen KoÄ enda, 2019. "Total, Asymmetric and Frequency Connectedness between Oil and Forex Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(2_suppl), pages 157-174, December.
    10. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    11. Muhammad Shahbaz & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Mohammad Iqbal Tahir, 2015. "Analyzing time-frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate in Pakistan through wavelets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 690-704, April.
    12. Benhmad, François, 2012. "Modeling nonlinear Granger causality between the oil price and U.S. dollar: A wavelet based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1505-1514.
    13. Alam, Md. Samsul & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Ferrer, Román, 2019. "Causal flows between oil and forex markets using high-frequency data: Asymmetries from good and bad volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    14. Pershin, Vitaly & Molero, Juan Carlos & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2016. "Exploring the oil prices and exchange rates nexus in some African economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 166-180.
    15. Baghestani, Hamid & Toledo, Hugo, 2019. "Oil prices and real exchange rates in the NAFTA region," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 253-264.
    16. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    17. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
    18. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    19. Umar Bala & Lee Chin & Ghulam Mustafa, 2022. "Threshold Effects of Oil Price and Oil Export on Trade Balance in Africa," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 14-27.
    20. Troug, Haytem & Murray, Matt, 2015. "The Effects of Asymmetric Shocks in Oil Prices on the Performance of the Libyan Economy," MPRA Paper 68705, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rates; Current account; Gas prices; Asymmetries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:60:y:2024:i:c:s1544612323012126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.