IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v60y2024ics1544612323011984.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Return prediction: A tree-based conditional sort approach with firm characteristics

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Nianling
  • Zhang, Mingzhi
  • Zhang, Yuan

Abstract

This paper proposes the Augmented Tree-Based Conditional Sort approach to investigate the return prediction problems. We find a momentum effect in the Chinese stock market using monthly data over 5000 stocks from January 2005 to December 2022. The corresponding momentum strategy robustly outperforms the market portfolio and earns an excess return of 10.60 % annually. Besides a full-period momentum effect, we find a sub-period reversal effect before year 2018 and locate year 2018 as a turning point from the reversal effect to the momentum effect. We attribute this phenomenon to the rapid increase of institutional investors since then.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Nianling & Zhang, Mingzhi & Zhang, Yuan, 2024. "Return prediction: A tree-based conditional sort approach with firm characteristics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:60:y:2024:i:c:s1544612323011984
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104826
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323011984
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104826?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gao, Ya & Han, Xing & Li, Youwei & Xiong, Xiong, 2021. "Investor heterogeneity and momentum-based trading strategies in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Xiong, Tao & Wang, Peng, 2023. "Institutional ownership and momentum in the Chinese A-share market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Andy C W Chui & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Sheridan Titman, 2022. "Momentum, Reversals, and Investor Clientele [Illiquidity and stock returns: Cross-section and time-series effects]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 217-255.
    4. Hossain, Ashrafee & Rjiba, Hatem & Zhang, Dongyang, 2023. "Ex-ante litigation risk and firm-level climate-change exposure," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 731-746.
    5. Shihao Gu & Bryan Kelly & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 33(5), pages 2223-2273.
    6. R. David Mclean & Jeffrey Pontiff, 2016. "Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 5-32, February.
    7. Haigang Zhou & John Geppert & Dongmin Kong, 2010. "An Anatomy of Trading Strategies: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 66-79, March.
    8. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
    9. Andy C.W. Chui & Sheridan Titman & K.C. John Wei, 2010. "Individualism and Momentum around the World," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 361-392, February.
    10. Shihao Gu & Bryan Kelly & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2223-2273.
    11. Sendhil Mullainathan & Jann Spiess, 2017. "Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 87-106, Spring.
    12. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2010. "The Cross†Section of Expected Stock Returns: What Have We Learnt from the Past Twenty†Five Years of Research?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(1), pages 27-42, January.
    13. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2020. "Replicating Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2019-2133.
    14. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    15. Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
    16. Li, Bo & Liu, Zhenya & Teka, Hanen & Wang, Shixuan, 2023. "The evolvement of momentum effects in China: Evidence from functional data analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Cheng, Feiyang & Wang, Chunfeng & Chiao, Chaoshin & Yao, Shouyu & Fang, Zhenming, 2021. "Retail attention, retail trades, and stock price crash risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    18. Yang, Baochen & Xue, Fangzhan & Su, Yunpeng & Yan, Cheng, 2019. "Is informational inefficiency priced in stock markets? A comparison between the U.S. and Chinese cases," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 222-238.
    19. Zhang, Dongyang, 2023. "Can environmental monitoring power transition curb corporate greenwashing behavior?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 199-218.
    20. Yao, Shouyu & Qin, Yuanyuan & Cheng, Feiyang & Wu, Ji(George) & Goodell, John.W., 2022. "Missing momentum in China: Considering individual investor preference," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    21. Kian‐Ping Lim & Robert Brooks, 2011. "The Evolution Of Stock Market Efficiency Over Time: A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 69-108, February.
    22. Chou, Pin-Huang & Wei, K.C. John & Chung, Huimin, 2007. "Sources of contrarian profits in the Japanese stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 261-286, June.
    23. Kang, Joseph & Liu, Ming-Hua & Ni, Sophie Xiaoyan, 2002. "Contrarian and momentum strategies in the China stock market: 1993-2000," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 243-265, June.
    24. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    25. Conghui Hu & Shasha Liu, 2013. "The Implications of Low R 2 : Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 17-32, January.
    26. Yang, Yunlin & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert, 2019. "Momentum effects in China: A review of the literature and an empirical explanation of prevailing controversies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 78-101.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Bo & Liu, Zhenya & Teka, Hanen & Wang, Shixuan, 2023. "The evolvement of momentum effects in China: Evidence from functional data analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Rubesam, Alexandre, 2022. "Machine learning portfolios with equal risk contributions: Evidence from the Brazilian market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    3. Cakici, Nusret & Fieberg, Christian & Metko, Daniel & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Machine learning goes global: Cross-sectional return predictability in international stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    4. Yao, Haixiang & Xia, Shenghao & Liu, Hao, 2022. "Six-factor asset pricing and portfolio investment via deep learning: Evidence from Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    6. Ouyang, Ruolan & Zhang, Kun & Zhang, Xuan & Zhu, Dongming, 2024. "Can factor momentum beat momentum factor? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    7. Yao, Shouyu & Qin, Yuanyuan & Cheng, Feiyang & Wu, Ji(George) & Goodell, John.W., 2022. "Missing momentum in China: Considering individual investor preference," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    8. Doron Avramov & Guy Kaplanski & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2022. "Postfundamentals Price Drift in Capital Markets: A Regression Regularization Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7658-7681, October.
    9. Tobek, Ondrej & Hronec, Martin, 2021. "Does it pay to follow anomalies research? Machine learning approach with international evidence," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    10. De Nard, Gianluca & Zhao, Zhao, 2022. "A large-dimensional test for cross-sectional anomalies:Efficient sorting revisited," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 654-676.
    11. Bui, Dien Giau & Kong, De-Rong & Lin, Chih-Yung & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2023. "Momentum in machine learning: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Eom, Cheoljun & Park, Jong Won, 2023. "Price behavior of small-cap stocks and momentum: A study using principal component momentum," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia, 2022. "Momentum investing: a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 87-113, February.
    14. Söhnke M. Bartram & Harald Lohre & Peter F. Pope & Ananthalakshmi Ranganathan, 2021. "Navigating the factor zoo around the world: an institutional investor perspective," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(5), pages 655-703, July.
    15. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 2023. "Momentum: Evidence and insights 30 years later," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    16. Ma, Tian & Liao, Cunfei & Jiang, Fuwei, 2024. "Factor momentum in the Chinese stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Pätäri, Eero & Karell, Ville & Luukka, Pasi & Yeomans, Julian S, 2018. "Comparison of the multicriteria decision-making methods for equity portfolio selection: The U.S. evidence," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(2), pages 655-672.
    18. Clarke, Charles, 2022. "The level, slope, and curve factor model for stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 159-187.
    19. Ramiah, Vikash & Xu, Xiaoming & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Neoclassical finance, behavioral finance and noise traders: A review and assessment of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 89-100.
    20. Anginer, Deniz & Ray, Sugata & Seyhun, H. Nejat & Xu, Luqi, 2024. "Expensive anomalies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:60:y:2024:i:c:s1544612323011984. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.