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The instability of stablecoins

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  • Duan, Kun
  • Urquhart, Andrew

Abstract

This paper examines the stability of the five largest stablecoins in terms of market capitalization through a fractional time series analysis. By using hourly data of Tether, USDC, Binance USD, DAI and PAX Dollar, we find strong evidence of instability of stablecoins, although these deviations from the $1 mark are gradually corrected at different speeds for all stablecoins except for DAI. For the latter, the deviations do not converge even in the long-run due to non-stationarity of the differentiated series between its price and the $1 mark. BUSD is found as the most stable stablecoin with the fastest correction speed. Further rolling-window analysis shows that stability of different stablecoins exhibits strong co-movement and time-variation.

Suggested Citation

  • Duan, Kun & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "The instability of stablecoins," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:52:y:2023:i:c:s1544612322007498
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103573
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2021. "Tethered, or Untethered? On the interplay between stablecoins and major cryptoassets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    2. Duan, Kun & Li, Zeming & Urquhart, Andrew & Ye, Jinqiang, 2021. "Dynamic efficiency and arbitrage potential in Bitcoin: A long-memory approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Manmohan S. Kumar & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2007. "Dynamics of Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1457-1479, September.
    4. Berk, Ales S. & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "Psychological price barriers in frontier equities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Grobys, Klaus & Junttila, Juha & Kolari, James W. & Sapkota, Niranjan, 2021. "On the stability of stablecoins," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 207-223.
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    Cited by:

    1. de l’Etang, Filezac, 2024. "Dollar’s role in institutional and media impact on stablecoins," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    2. Matthias Hafner & Marco Henriques Pereira & Helmut Dietl & Juan Beccuti, 2023. "The four types of stablecoins: A comparative analysis," Papers 2308.07041, arXiv.org.
    3. Feng, Jingyu & Yuan, Ying & Jiang, Mingxuan, 2024. "Are stablecoins better safe havens or hedges against global stock markets than other assets? Comparative analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 275-301.
    4. David Vidal-Tom'as & Antonio Briola & Tomaso Aste, 2023. "FTX's downfall and Binance's consolidation: The fragility of centralised digital finance," Papers 2302.11371, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    5. Vidal-Tomás, David & Briola, Antonio & Aste, Tomaso, 2023. "FTX's downfall and Binance's consolidation: the fragility of centralised digital finance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119902, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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