IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v50y2022ics1544612322004457.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Has the Evergrande debt crisis rattled Chinese capital markets? A series of event studies and their implications

Author

Listed:
  • Altman, Edward I.
  • Hu, Xiaolu
  • Yu, Jing

Abstract

In response to the global concern of the Evergrande debt crisis, we document several findings of the crisis's contagion effect. First, although most real estate companies have strong financial fundamentals, the high default risk among large firms sends an alarming signal. Second, the spillover effect to peer developers is stronger in the credit market than in the stock market. Finally, the systemic financial risk of the banking sector remains low during the crisis. Overall, while there is a low probability of a wide-ranging financial crisis, a debt crisis in the real estate sector might be on the horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Altman, Edward I. & Hu, Xiaolu & Yu, Jing, 2022. "Has the Evergrande debt crisis rattled Chinese capital markets? A series of event studies and their implications," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:50:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322004457
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103247
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612322004457
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103247?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hanming Fang & Quanlin Gu & Wei Xiong & Li-An Zhou, 2016. "Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 105-166.
    2. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2010. "Is Credit Event Risk Priced? Modeling Contagion via the Updating of Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 15733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hu, Xiaolu & Shi, Jing & Wang, Lafang & Yu, Jing, 2020. "Foreign ownership in Chinese credit ratings industry: Information revelation or certification?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Jorion, Philippe & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2007. "Good and bad credit contagion: Evidence from credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 860-883, June.
    5. Edward Glaeser & Wei Huang & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2017. "A Real Estate Boom with Chinese Characteristics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 93-116, Winter.
    6. Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. "The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-752, June.
    7. Ederington, Louis & Guan, Wei & Yang, Lisa (Zongfei), 2015. "Bond market event study methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 281-293.
    8. Bai, Jennie & Bali, Turan G. & Wen, Quan, 2019. "Common risk factors in the cross-section of corporate bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 619-642.
    9. Hendrik Bessembinder & Kathleen M. Kahle & William F. Maxwell & Danielle Xu, 2009. "Measuring Abnormal Bond Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4219-4258, October.
    10. Carpenter, Jennifer N. & Lu, Fangzhou & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2021. "The real value of China’s stock market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 679-696.
    11. Shing-Yi Wang, 2011. "State Misallocation and Housing Prices: Theory and Evidence from China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2081-2107, August.
    12. Qian Han & Jufang Liang, 2017. "Index Futures Trading Restrictions and Spot Market Quality: Evidence from the Recent Chinese Stock Market Crash," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 411-428, April.
    13. Lin, Hai & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2011. "Liquidity risk and expected corporate bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 628-650, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Naveed, Muhammad & Ali, Shoaib & Gubareva, Mariya & Omri, Anis, 2024. "When giants fall: Tracing the ripple effects of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse on global financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    2. Zhu, Ruihua & Chen, Fang, 2024. "Tax and financial credit risks—Empirical evidence from Chinese investment enterprises," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. Ali, Shoaib & Naveed, Muhammad & Gubareva, Mariya & Vinh Vo, Xuan, 2024. "Reputational contagion from the Silicon Valley Bank debacle," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Ahmed, Shamima & Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & James, Wendy & Moussa, Faten, 2024. "Is the Evergrande crisis spilling beyond China?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaolu Hu & Haoyi Luo & Zijin Xu & Jiang Li, 2021. "Intra‐industry spill‐over effect of default: Evidence from the Chinese bond market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4703-4740, September.
    2. Chang Liu & Wei Xiong, 2018. "China's Real Estate Market," NBER Working Papers 25297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jia Pengfei & Lim King Yoong, 2021. "Tax Policy and Toxic Housing Bubbles in China," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 151-183, January.
    4. Jie Cao & Amit Goyal & Xiao Xiao & Xintong Zhan, 2023. "Implied Volatility Changes and Corporate Bond Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1375-1397, March.
    5. Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2016. "The impact and the spillover effect of a sovereign rating announcement on the euro area CDS market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 264-286.
    6. Nong, Huifu & Yu, Ziliang & Li, Yang, 2024. "Financial shock transmission in China's banking and housing sectors: A network analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 701-723.
    7. Flore, Christian & Degryse, Hans & Kolaric, Sascha & Schiereck, Dirk, 2021. "Forgive me all my sins: How penalties imposed on banks travel through markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Joost Bats & Giovanna Bua & Daniel Kapp, 2023. "Physical and transition risk premiums in euro area corporate bond markets," Working Papers 761, DNB.
    9. Jennie Bai & Turan G. Bali & Quan Wen, 2019. "Is There a Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Corporate Bond Market? Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Evidence," NBER Working Papers 25995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Wrenn, Douglas H. & Yi, Junjian & Zhang, Bo, 2019. "House prices and marriage entry in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 118-130.
    11. Iyer, Subramanian R. & Simkins, Betty J. & Wang, Heng, 2020. "Cyberattacks and impact on bond valuation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    12. Huang, Tao & Jiang, Liang & Li, Junye, 2023. "Downside variance premium, firm fundamentals, and expected corporate bond returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    13. Bai, Jennie & Bali, Turan G. & Wen, Quan, 2021. "Is there a risk-return tradeoff in the corporate bond market? Time-series and cross-sectional evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1017-1037.
    14. Chen, Wen, 2021. "Equity investor sentiment and bond market reaction: Test of overinvestment and capital flow hypotheses," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    15. Maul, D. & Schiereck, D., 2017. "The bond event study methodology since 1974," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 80723, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    16. Bertoni, Fabio & Lugo, Stefano, 2018. "Detecting abnormal changes in credit default swap spreads using matching-portfolio models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 146-158.
    17. Alex Holcomb & Paul Mason, 2021. "The Effect of Industry Restructuring on Peer Firms," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-25, May.
    18. Xiandeng Jiang & Zheng Pan & Ningru Zhao, 2023. "Relative Value vs Absolute Value: Housing Wealth and Labor Supply," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 41-76, January.
    19. Zhang, Heming & Wang, Guanying, 2021. "Reversal effect and corporate bond pricing in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    20. Yang, Huan & Cai, Jun & Huang, Lin & Marcus, Alan J., 2021. "Bank stocks, risk factors, and tail behavior," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 203-229.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Evergrande; Credit risk; China markets; Event studies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:50:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322004457. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.