IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v48y2022ics1544612322001489.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting the debt-equity decision

Author

Listed:
  • Smith, Geoffrey Peter

Abstract

I train the k-nearest neighbors (KNN) and random forests (RF) machine learning models to predict if a firm will issue debt, or equity, in the upcoming quarter. KNN predicts 94% of debt and 80% of equity issues correctly. RF predicts 95% of debt and 86% of equity issues correctly. KNN is 92% correct when predicting debt and 84% correct when predicting equity. RF is 94% correct when predicting debt and 88% correct when predicting equity. The overall prediction accuracy is 90% for KNN and 92% for RF. I conclude that machine learning models can “learn” to predict the debt-equity decision.

Suggested Citation

  • Smith, Geoffrey Peter, 2022. "Predicting the debt-equity decision," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:48:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322001489
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.102859
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612322001489
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102859?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hovakimian, Armen & Opler, Tim & Titman, Sheridan, 2001. "The Debt-Equity Choice," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-24, March.
    2. MacKie-Mason, Jeffrey K, 1990. "Do Taxes Affect Corporate Financing Decisions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1471-1493, December.
    3. Wright, Marvin N. & Ziegler, Andreas, 2017. "ranger: A Fast Implementation of Random Forests for High Dimensional Data in C++ and R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 77(i01).
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:1:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. DeAngelo, Harry & Masulis, Ronald W., 1980. "Optimal capital structure under corporate and personal taxation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 3-29, March.
    6. Lucas, Deborah J & McDonald, Robert L, 1990. "Equity Issues and Stock Price Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1019-1043, September.
    7. Amini, Shahram & Elmore, Ryan & Öztekin, Özde & Strauss, Jack, 2021. "Can machines learn capital structure dynamics?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1973. "A State-Preference Model of Optimal Financial Leverage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 911-922, September.
    9. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2005. "Financing decisions: who issues stock?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 549-582, June.
    10. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1995. "What Do We Know about Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1421-1460, December.
    11. Hovakimian, Armen & Hovakimian, Gayane & Tehranian, Hassan, 2004. "Determinants of target capital structure: The case of dual debt and equity issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 517-540, March.
    12. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Moise Dumitru-Florin, 2023. "The Influence of the Company Size, Financing Structure and Assets Efficiency on the Positive Net Result in the Agri-Business Sector," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 524-536, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2012. "Market timing, taxes and capital structure: evidence from Vietnam," OSF Preprints t3mvs, Center for Open Science.
    2. ElBannan, Mona A., 2017. "Stock market liquidity, family ownership, and capital structure choices in an emerging country," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 201-231.
    3. Jarle Møen & Dirk Schindler & Guttorm Schjelderup & Julia Tropina, 2011. "International Debt Shifting: Do Multinationals Shift Internal or External Debt?," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-40, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    4. Lipson, Marc L. & Mortal, Sandra, 2009. "Liquidity and capital structure," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 611-644, November.
    5. Murray Z. Frank & Vidhan K. Goyal, 2009. "Capital Structure Decisions: Which Factors Are Reliably Important?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 1-37, March.
    6. Jarle Møen & Dirk Schindler & Guttorm Schjelderup & Julia Tropina Bakke, 2019. "International Debt Shifting: The Value-Maximizing Mix of Internal and External Debt," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 431-465, September.
    7. Francisco Sogorb- Mira & José Lopez- Gracia, 2003. "Pecking Order Versus Trade-Off: An Empirical Approach To The Small And Medium Enterprise Capital Structure," Working Papers. Serie EC 2003-09, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    8. Harford, Jarrad & Klasa, Sandy & Walcott, Nathan, 2009. "Do firms have leverage targets? Evidence from acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, July.
    9. Philippe GAUD & Martin HOESLI & André BENDER, 2004. "Further Evidence on Debt-Equity Choice," FAME Research Paper Series rp114, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    10. Goldbach, Stefan & Møen, Jarle & Schindler, Dirk & Schjelderup, Guttorm & Wamser, Georg, 2021. "The tax-efficient use of debt in multinational corporations," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Pensa, Pascal & Wöhle, Claudia B., 2004. "Kapitalstrukturtheorie in Theorie und Praxis: Ergebnisse einer Fragebogenuntersuchung," Working papers 2004/09, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    12. Ravid, S. Abraham & Venezia, Itzhak & Ofer, Aharon & Pons, Vicente & Zuta, Shlomith, 2007. "When are preferred shares preferred? Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 198-237, October.
    13. Abrapuspa Ghani Talattov & Nur Azura Sanusi & Suhal Kusairi & Abu Hassan Shaari, 2016. "The Role Of Corporate Zakat On Optimal Capital Structure Policy: Evidence From Malaysian Firms," Journal of Islamic Monetary Economics and Finance, Bank Indonesia, vol. 1(2), pages 259-292, February.
    14. Wu, Xueping & Au Yeung, Chau Kin, 2012. "Firm growth type and capital structure persistence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3427-3443.
    15. Duan, Ran, 2023. "Patent trolls and capital structure decisions in high-tech firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    16. Jamie Alcock & Eva Steiner, 2017. "The Interrelationships between REIT Capital Structure and Investment," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(3), pages 371-394, September.
    17. Buettner, Thiess & Wamser, Georg, 2013. "Internal Debt and Multinational Profit Shifting: Empirical Evidence From Firm-Level Panel Data," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 66(1), pages 63-95, March.
    18. Chen, Long & Zhao, Xinlei, 2006. "On the relation between the market-to-book ratio, growth opportunity, and leverage ratio," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 253-266, December.
    19. Joye Khoo & Robert B. Durand & Subhrendu Rath, 2017. "Leverage adjustment after mergers and acquisitions," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57, pages 185-210, April.
    20. Paulo Maçãs Nunes & Zélia Serrasqueiro, 2017. "Short-term debt and long-term debt determinants in small and medium-sized hospitality firms," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(3), pages 543-560, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt-equity decision; Machine learning for classification; Capital structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:48:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322001489. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.