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What caused global stock market meltdown during the COVID pandemic–Lockdown stringency or investor panic?

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  • Aggarwal, Shobhit
  • Nawn, Samarpan
  • Dugar, Amish

Abstract

This paper isolates the different effects of COVID-19 on the stock market returns and identifies the channels through which each of the effects influences the returns. Using a sample of twelve countries with most liquid stock markets, we find that the panic caused by the pandemic affects the stock return negatively through the updation of market risk premium channel. The stringency of the lockdown has a two-way effect on the stock market returns, whereas it affects the return negatively through the updation of growth forecasts, it also affects the return positively through the updation of market risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Aggarwal, Shobhit & Nawn, Samarpan & Dugar, Amish, 2021. "What caused global stock market meltdown during the COVID pandemic–Lockdown stringency or investor panic?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:38:y:2021:i:c:s154461232031641x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101827
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    5. Celso-Arellano, Pedro & Gualajara, Victor & Coronado, Semei & Martinez, Jose N. & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2023. "Impact of the global fear index (covid-19 panic) on the S&P global indices associated with natural resources, agribusiness, energy, metals and mining: Granger Causality and Shannon and Rényi Transfer ," MPRA Paper 117138, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Feb 2023.
    6. Florin-Teodor Boldeanu & Adriana Veronica Litră & José Antonio Clemente-Almendros & Ileana Tache, 2022. "The link Between Stock Exchange Sectors and Indices: Implications During the COVID-19 Pandemic," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(4), pages 21582440221, December.
    7. Allen, Kyle D. & Baig, Ahmed & Winters, Drew B., 2023. "The response of money market funds to the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Iyer, Subramanian Rama & Simkins, Betty J., 2022. "COVID-19 and the Economy: Summary of research and future directions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    9. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2023. "Which COVID-19 information really impacts stock markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Li, Yanshuang & Shi, Yujie & Shi, Yongdong & Xiong, Xiong & Yi, Shangkun, 2024. "Time-frequency extreme risk spillovers between COVID-19 news-based panic sentiment and stock market volatility in the multi-layer network: Evidence from the RCEP countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Deng, Tianjie & Xu, Tracy & Lee, Young Jin, 2022. "Policy responses to COVID-19 and stock market reactions - An international evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    12. Waqas Shair & Dr. Farhat Rasul & Sidra Raza & Dr. Ayesha Qamar, 2023. "Panic News and media Hype Effects on Stock Market Returns and Volatility amid Infectious Diseases Turmoil," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 12(4), pages 79-87.
    13. Kotcharin, Suntichai & Maneenop, Sakkakom & Jaroenjitrkam, Anutchanat, 2023. "The impact of government policy responses on airline stock return during the COVID-19 crisis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    14. Seyed Alireza Athari & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, 2023. "World pandemic uncertainty and German stock market: evidence from Markov regime-switching and Fourier based approaches," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1923-1936, April.
    15. Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski, 2021. "Is the Alternative Energy Sector COVID-19 Resistant? Comparison with the Conventional Energy Sector: Markov-Switching Model Analysis of Stock Market Indices of Energy Companies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, February.

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