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Calendar effects in Bitcoin returns and volatility

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  • Kinateder, Harald
  • Papavassiliou, Vassilios G.

Abstract

We use a GARCH dummy model to study the influence of calendar effects on daily conditional returns and volatility of Bitcoin during the period 2013–2019. The Halloween, day-of-the-week (DOW), and month-of-the-year (MOY) effects are analyzed. Our results reveal no evidence of a Halloween calendar anomaly. A classical DOW effect is not present in Bitcoin returns, however, we find significantly lower risk over the weekend whilst in the beginning of the week Bitcoin's volatility is more intense. Moreover, supporting evidence of a reverse January effect is detected. Our results also show that investors’ risk drops substantially in September.

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  • Kinateder, Harald & Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2021. "Calendar effects in Bitcoin returns and volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:38:y:2021:i:c:s1544612319311316
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2019.101420
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    11. Fang Wang & Marko Gacesa, 2024. "Semi-strong Efficient Market of Bitcoin and Twitter: an Analysis of Semantic Vector Spaces of Extracted Keywords and Light Gradient Boosting Machine Models," Papers 2409.15988, arXiv.org.
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    15. Algieri, Bernardina & Lawuobahsumo, Kokulo & Leccadito, Arturo, 2024. "Calendar Effects on Returns, Volatility and Higher Moments: Evidence from Crypto Markets," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2024001, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    16. Poddar, Abhishek & Misra, Arun Kumar & Mishra, Ajay Kumar, 2023. "Return connectedness and volatility dynamics of the cryptocurrency network," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    17. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Fernández Bariviera, Aurelio & Savva, Christos S., 2020. "Weekly dynamic conditional correlations among cryptocurrencies and traditional assets," Working Papers 2072/417680, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Calendar anomalies; Bitcoin; GARCH dummy model; Efficient market hypothesis; Seasonalities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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