IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v38y2021ics1544612319303010.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does it payoff to be overconfident? Evidence from an emerging market – a quantile regression approach

Author

Listed:
  • TOMA, Filip-Mihai
  • CEPOI, Cosmin-Octavian
  • NEGREA, Bogdan

Abstract

•Using an emerging market dataset, we find that overconfidence has a positive influence on individual returns of Romanian investors;.•An overconfidence index is constructed through principal component analysis using three variables: trading frequency, volume and portfolio diversification;.•Overconfidence has a larger positive effect on higher returns for shorter investment horizons;.•Marginal benefits of overconfident behavior diminish as the holding period increases.

Suggested Citation

  • TOMA, Filip-Mihai & CEPOI, Cosmin-Octavian & NEGREA, Bogdan, 2021. "Does it payoff to be overconfident? Evidence from an emerging market – a quantile regression approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:38:y:2021:i:c:s1544612319303010
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101480
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612319303010
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101480?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2007. "Why inexperienced investors do not learn: They do not know their past portfolio performance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 203-216, December.
    2. Filip, Andrei & Raffournier, Bernard, 2010. "The value relevance of earnings in a transition economy: The case of Romania," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 77-103, March.
    3. Dorn, Daniel & Huberman, Gur, 2010. "Preferred risk habitat of individual investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 155-173, July.
    4. John M. Griffin & Federico Nardari & René M. Stulz, 2007. "Do Investors Trade More When Stocks Have Performed Well? Evidence from 46 Countries," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 905-951.
    5. Dima, Bogdan & Dima, Ştefana Maria, 2017. "Mutual information and persistence in the stochastic volatility of market returns: An emergent market example," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 36-59.
    6. Kuo, Wei-Yu & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2013. "Overconfident individual day traders: Evidence from the Taiwan futures market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3548-3561.
    7. William N. Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 2008. "Equity Portfolio Diversification," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 12(3), pages 433-463.
    8. Trejos, Cristian & van Deemen, Adrian & Rodríguez, Yeny E. & Gómez, Juan M., 2019. "Overconfidence and disposition effect in the stock market: A micro world based setting," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 61-69.
    9. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    10. Victor Dragotă & Elena Ţilică, 2014. "Market efficiency of the Post Communist East European stock markets," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 22(2), pages 307-337, June.
    11. John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey & Hai Huang, 2009. "Investor Competence, Trading Frequency, and Home Bias," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(7), pages 1094-1106, July.
    12. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
    13. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    14. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    15. Alen Nosić & Martin Weber, 2010. "How Riskily Do I Invest? The Role of Risk Attitudes, Risk Perceptions, and Overconfidence," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(3), pages 282-301, September.
    16. Cristian Trejos & Adrian van Deemen & Yeny E. Rodriguez & Juan M. Gomez, 2019. "Overconfidence and disposition effect in the stock market : A micro world based setting," Post-Print hal-02312273, HAL.
    17. Richard Deaves & Erik Lüders & Guo Ying Luo, 2009. "An Experimental Test of the Impact of Overconfidence and Gender on Trading Activity," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(3), pages 555-575.
    18. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    19. Brad M. Barber & Yi-Tsung Lee & Yu-Jane Liu & Terrance Odean, 2009. "Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by Trading?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 609-632, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cosmin Octavian Cepoi & Victor Dragotă & Ruxandra Trifan & Andreea Iordache, 2023. "Probability of informed trading during the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of the Romanian stock market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Merkle, Christoph, 2017. "Financial overconfidence over time: Foresight, hindsight, and insight of investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 68-87.
    2. Abreu, Margarida, 2019. "How biased is the behavior of the individual investor in warrants?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 139-149.
    3. Oliver Gloede & Lukas Menkhoff, 2014. "Financial Professionals' Overconfidence: Is It Experience, Function, or Attitude?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(2), pages 236-269, March.
    4. D’Hondt, Catherine & De Winne, Rudy & Merli, Maxime, 2021. "Do retail investors bite off more than they can chew? A close look at their return objectives," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 879-902.
    5. Merkle, Christoph, 2018. "The curious case of negative volatility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 92-108.
    6. Margarida Abreu, 2017. "How Biased is the Behavior of the Individual Investor in Warrants?," Working Papers REM 2017/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Richards, Daniel W. & Willows, Gizelle D., 2018. "Who trades profusely? The characteristics of individual investors who trade frequently," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-11.
    8. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2013. "The Behavior of Individual Investors," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1533-1570, Elsevier.
    9. Margaria Abreu, 2017. "HOW Biased is the Behavior of the Individual Investor in Warrants?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/18, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2020. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Activity in the Asia Pacific REIT Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, September.
    11. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2016. "Overconfidence And Real Estate Research: A Survey Of The Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    12. Margarida Abreu & Victor Mendes, 2018. "Do Individual Investors Trade Differently in Different Markets?," Working Papers REM 2018/26, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    13. Merkle, Christoph & Weber, Martin, 2014. "Do investors put their money where their mouth is? Stock market expectations and investing behavior," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 372-386.
    14. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Cameron & Xiong, Wei A. & Xiong, Wei, 2022. "Taming the bias zoo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 716-741.
    15. Forman, John & Horton, Joanne, 2019. "Overconfidence, position size, and the link to performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 291-309.
    16. Inghelbrecht, Koen & Tedde, Mariachiara, 2024. "Overconfidence, financial literacy and excessive trading," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 152-195.
    17. Phan, Thuy Chung & Rieger, Marc Oliver & Wang, Mei, 2018. "What leads to overtrading and under-diversification? Survey evidence from retail investors in an emerging market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 39-55.
    18. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Cameron & Wei, Xiong & Wei, Xiong, 2022. "Taming the bias zoo," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 109301, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Kleine, Jens & Wagner, Niklas & Weller, Tim, 2016. "Openness endangers your wealth: Noise trading and the big five," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 239-247.
    20. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2009. "Sensation Seeking, Overconfidence, and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 549-578, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:38:y:2021:i:c:s1544612319303010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.