IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v18y2016icp52-59.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trading activity and price behavior in Chinese agricultural futures markets

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Xiaolin
  • Ye, Qiang
  • Zhao, Feng

Abstract

Using a comprehensive sample of China's agricultural futures from 2010 to 2015, we investigate the relation between trading activities and futures markets liquidity, returns and volatilities. We find that contemporaneous order imbalances are positively related to returns. Order imbalance caused by price pressure lasts more than one day indicating difficulty in absorbing excess buy and sell orders. We also find that lagged order imbalance can predict current returns and that the effect of order imbalance on liquidity is limited. These results are consistent with the explanation that speculative trading not liquidity hinders the Chinese agricultural futures markets to accommodate excess order imbalance.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Xiaolin & Ye, Qiang & Zhao, Feng, 2016. "Trading activity and price behavior in Chinese agricultural futures markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 52-59.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:18:y:2016:i:c:p:52-59
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2016.03.028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612316300393
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2016.03.028?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:4:p:827-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Joseph K.W. Fung & Philip Yu, 2007. "Order Imbalance and the Dynamics of Index and Futures Prices," Working Papers 072007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    3. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2002. "Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 111-130, July.
    4. Chin‐Ho Chen & Huimin Chung & Shu‐Fang Yuan, 2014. "Deviations from Put–Call Parity and Volatility Prediction: Evidence from the Taiwan Index Option Market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(12), pages 1122-1145, December.
    5. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. "Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
    6. Gibbons, Michael R & Hess, Patrick, 1981. "Day of the Week Effects and Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 579-596, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nan, Qiuying & Sun, Mengchan & Nie, Jiajia & Yang, Rui & Wan, Lijuan, 2023. "The efficacy of a forward market for the agricultural sector in mitigating climate risk: A potential alternative to agricultural subsidies?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    2. Martin T. Bohl, Pierre Siklos, Claudia Wellenreuther, 2018. "Speculative Activity and Returns to Volatility of Chinese Major Agricultural Commodity Futures," LCERPA Working Papers 0111, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 30 Jan 2018.
    3. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Wellenreuther, Claudia, 2018. "Speculative activity and returns volatility of Chinese agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 69-91.
    4. Kou, Yi & Ye, Qiang & Zhao, Feng & Wang, Xiaolin, 2018. "Effects of investor attention on commodity futures markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 190-195.
    5. Muzhao Jin & Fearghal Kearney & Youwei Li & Yung Chiang Yang, 2023. "Order book price impact in the Chinese soybean futures market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 606-625, January.
    6. Zhou, Liyun & Zhang, Rixin & Huang, Jialiang, 2019. "Investor trading behavior on agricultural future prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 365-379.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chordia, Tarun & Sarkar, Asani & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2005. "The Joint Dynamics of Liquidity, Returns, and Volatility Across Small and Large Firms," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6z81z2wc, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    2. Lee, Yi-Tsung & Liu, Yu-Jane & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2001. "Order Imbalances and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Exchange, Forthcoming in the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7w8106qn, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    3. Sifat, Imtiaz Mohammad & Mohamad, Azhar, 2015. "Order imbalance and selling aggression under a shorting ban: Evidence from the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 368-379.
    4. Smales, Lee A., 2013. "Bond futures and order imbalance," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 113-132.
    5. Zhang, Ting & Gu, Gao-Feng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2019. "Order imbalances and market efficiency: New evidence from the Chinese stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 458-467.
    6. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2009. "Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Variability," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-33.
    7. Choi, Darwin & Getmansky, Mila & Tookes, Heather, 2009. "Convertible bond arbitrage, liquidity externalities, and stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-251, February.
    8. Gary McCormick & Dan W. French, 2016. "Effects of frequent information disclosure: the case of daily net asset value reporting for closed-end investment companies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 107-122, January.
    9. Tsung-Kang Chen & Yijie Tseng & Yu-Ting Hsieh, 2015. "Real Earnings Management Uncertainty and Corporate Credit Risk," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 413-440, September.
    10. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 27, July-Dece.
    11. Mazza, Paolo, 2015. "Price dynamics and market liquidity: An intraday event study on Euronext," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 139-153.
    12. Junmao Chiu & Huimin Chung & Keng-Yu Ho, 2014. "Fear Sentiment, Liquidity, and Trading Behavior: Evidence from the Index ETF Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(03), pages 1-25.
    13. Valeria Martinez & Yiuman Tse & Jullavut Kittiakarasakun, 2013. "Volatility, trade size, and order imbalance in China and Japan exchange traded funds," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(2), pages 293-307, April.
    14. Nyborg, Kjell G. & Östberg, Per, 2014. "Money and liquidity in financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 30-52.
    15. Chin‐Ho Chen & Junmao Chiu & Huimin Chung, 2020. "Arbitrage opportunities, liquidity provision, and trader types in an index option market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 279-307, March.
    16. Chiu, Junmao & Chung, Huimin & Ho, Keng-Yu & Wang, George H.K., 2012. "Funding liquidity and equity liquidity in the subprime crisis period: Evidence from the ETF market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2660-2671.
    17. Chung, Dennis & Hrazdil, Karel, 2010. "Liquidity and market efficiency: A large sample study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2346-2357, October.
    18. Maobin Wang & Chun Qiu & Dongmin Kong, 2011. "Corporate Social Responsibility, Investor Behaviors, and Stock Market Returns: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in China," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 101(1), pages 127-141, June.
    19. Chiu, Junmao & Tsai, Kunchi, 2017. "Government interventions and equity liquidity in the sub-prime crisis period: Evidence from the ETF market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 128-142.
    20. Onur, Esen & Roberts, John S. & Tuzun, Tugkan, 2023. "Trader positions and aggregate portfolio demand," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:18:y:2016:i:c:p:52-59. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.