IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v17y2016icp55-61.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Copula function approaches for the analysis of serial and cross dependence in stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Rivieccio, Giorgia
  • De Luca, Giovanni

Abstract

The description of the dynamic behavior of multiple time series represents an important point of departure to obtain accurate forecasts both in economic and financial analysis. We provide a method for the comparison of the out-of-sample performance of portfolios, respectively, ignoring and exploiting serial and cross dependence in stock returns. The serial and cross dependence is modeled using both the classical linear and easy-to-use Vector AutoRegressive and more sophisticated models making use of copula functions. After deriving the classical and copula-based VAR conditional expected returns and covariance, we construct different portfolios and compare them in terms of Sharpe ratio in an out-of-sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Rivieccio, Giorgia & De Luca, Giovanni, 2016. "Copula function approaches for the analysis of serial and cross dependence in stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 55-61.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:17:y:2016:i:c:p:55-61
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2016.01.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612316000076
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2016.01.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1975-1999 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Victor DeMiguel & Francisco J. Nogales & Raman Uppal, 2014. "Stock Return Serial Dependence and Out-of-Sample Portfolio Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 1031-1073.
    3. Carluccio Bianchi & Alessandro Carta & Dean Fantazzini & Maria Elena De Giuli & Mario Maggi, 2010. "A copula-VAR-X approach for industrial production modelling and forecasting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(25), pages 3267-3277.
    4. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
    5. Eike Christian Brechmann & Claudia Czado, 2015. "COPAR—multivariate time series modeling using the copula autoregressive model," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 495-514, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Tobias Burggraf, 2020. "If worst comes to worst: Co-movement of global stock markets in the US-China trade war," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 21-30.
    2. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Hille, Erik & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2020. "Diversification in the age of the 4th industrial revolution: The role of artificial intelligence, green bonds and cryptocurrencies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luca, Giovanni De & Guégan, Dominique & Rivieccio, Giorgia, 2019. "Assessing tail risk for nonlinear dependence of MSCI sector indices: A copula three-stage approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 327-333.
    2. Dominique Guegan & Giovanni de Luca & Giorgia Rivieccio, 2017. "Three-stage estimation method for non-linear multiple time-series," Post-Print halshs-01439860, HAL.
    3. Dominique Guegan & Giovanni De Luca & Giorgia Rivieccio, 2017. "Three-stage estimation method for non-linear multiple time-series," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17001, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    4. Dominique Guegan & Giovanni de Luca & Giorgia Rivieccio, 2017. "Three-stage estimation method for non-linear multiple time-series," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01439860, HAL.
    5. Immo Stadtmüller & Benjamin R. Auer & Frank Schuhmacher, 2024. "Core-satellite investing with commodity futures momentum," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(3), pages 261-287, May.
    6. Alexander M. Chinco & Adam D. Clark-Joseph & Mao Ye, 2017. "Sparse Signals in the Cross-Section of Returns," NBER Working Papers 23933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Anna Scherbina & Bernd Schlusche, 2016. "Economic linkages inferred from news stories and the predictability of stock returns," AEI Economics Working Papers 873600, American Enterprise Institute.
    8. DeMiguel, Victor & Martin-Utrera, Alberto & Nogales, Francisco J. & Uppal, Raman, 2017. "A Portfolio Perspective on the Multitude of Firm Characteristics," CEPR Discussion Papers 12417, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Takano, Yuichi & Gotoh, Jun-ya, 2023. "Dynamic portfolio selection with linear control policies for coherent risk minimization," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 10(C).
    10. Xue-Zhong He & Kai Li & Chuncheng Wang, 2018. "Time-varying economic dominance in financial markets: A bistable dynamics approach," Published Paper Series 2018-1, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. Zareei, Abalfazl, 2019. "Network origins of portfolio risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Gah-Yi Ban & Noureddine El Karoui & Andrew E. B. Lim, 2018. "Machine Learning and Portfolio Optimization," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(3), pages 1136-1154, March.
    13. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    14. Wolfgang Aussenegg & Andreas Grünbichler, 1999. "Der Size-Effekt am Österreichischen Aktienmarkt," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 51(7), pages 636-661, July.
    15. Allaudeen Hameed, 1997. "Time-Varying Factors And Cross-Autocorrelations In Short-Horizon Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 435-458, December.
    16. Drakos, Anastassios A., 2016. "Does the relationship between small and large portfolios’ returns confirm the lead–lag effect? Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 546-561.
    17. Chris Stivers & Licheng Sun, 2013. "Market Cycles and the Performance of Relative Strength Strategies," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 263-290, June.
    18. Sjoo, Boo & Zhang, Jianhua, 2000. "Market segmentation and information diffusion in China's stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 421-438, December.
    19. Semenov, Andrei, 2021. "Measuring the stock's factor beta and identifying risk factors under market inefficiency," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 635-649.
    20. Nicholas Apergis & Vasilios Plakandaras & Ioannis Pragidis, 2022. "Industry momentum and reversals in stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3093-3138, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Copula function; Sharpe ratio; Vector AutoRegressive models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:17:y:2016:i:c:p:55-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.