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Credit contagion and competitive effects of bond rating downgrades along the supply chain

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  • Chang, Jung-Hsien
  • Hung, Mao-Wei
  • Tsai, Feng-Tse

Abstract

This study investigates credit risk effects of credit rating downgrades on downgraded firms’ intra-industry rivals (horizontal relation), suppliers and customers (vertical relation). Using event study approach, we analyze credit default swap (CDS) spread changes for downgraded firms’ rivals, suppliers and customers. The result shows that rivals and suppliers experience significant credit spread increases during bond rating downgrades. Suppliers suffer from vertical credit contagion only conditioning on occurrence of horizontal credit contagion (increasing credit risk among intra-industry rivals). When horizontal credit competitiveness happens (decreasing credit risk among intra-industry rivals), customers appear to have vertical credit competitive effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Jung-Hsien & Hung, Mao-Wei & Tsai, Feng-Tse, 2015. "Credit contagion and competitive effects of bond rating downgrades along the supply chain," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 232-238.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:15:y:2015:i:c:p:232-238
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2015.10.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Spatareanu, Mariana & Manole, Vlad & Kabiri, Ali & Roland, Isabelle, 2023. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: evidence from the U.K," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117351, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Long Ren & Shaojie Cong & Xinlong Xue & Daqing Gong, 2024. "Credit rating prediction with supply chain information: a machine learning perspective," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 342(1), pages 657-686, November.
    3. Senay Agca & Volodymyr Babich & John R. Birge & Jing Wu, 2022. "Credit Shock Propagation Along Supply Chains: Evidence from the CDS Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 6506-6538, September.
    4. Ali Kabiri & Vlad Malone & Isabelle Roland & Mariana Spatareanu, 2020. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: evidence from the UK," CEP Discussion Papers dp1699, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Xie, Xiaofeng & Shi, Xinyu & Gu, Jing & Xu, Xun, 2023. "Examining the Contagion Effect of Credit Risk in a Supply Chain under Trade Credit and Bank Loan Offering," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Ballester, Laura & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2021. "Do sovereign ratings cause instability in cross-border emerging CDS markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 643-663.
    7. Tang, Leo & Li, Pei, 2021. "Are investors fixated on credit ratings? Reinterpreting the municipal bond recalibration," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    8. Qian Qian & Yang Yang & Zong-Fang Zhou, 2019. "Research on Trade Credit Spreading and Credit Risk within the Supply Chain," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 389-411, January.
    9. Xiaolu Hu & Haoyi Luo & Zijin Xu & Jiang Li, 2021. "Intra‐industry spill‐over effect of default: Evidence from the Chinese bond market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4703-4740, September.
    10. Mariana Spatareanu & Vlad Manole & Ali Kabiri & Isabelle Roland, 2021. "Bank Default Risk Propagation along Supply Chains: Evidence from the U.K," Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark 2021-001, Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark.
    11. Spatareanu, Mariana & Manole, Vlad & Kabiri, Ali & Roland, Isabelle, 2023. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: Evidence from the U.K," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 813-831.
    12. Spatareanu, M. & Manole, V. & Kabiri, A. & Roland, I., 2020. "Bank Default Risk Propagation along Supply Chains: Evidence from the U.K," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2058, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Credit rating; Contagion effect; Competitive effect; Supply chain;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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