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Fat tails in private equity fund returns: The smooth double Pareto distribution

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  • Lahr, Henry

Abstract

Does the distribution of private equity returns have fat tails? A new smooth double Pareto distribution can explain the stationary distribution of private equity funds' valuation multiples. This distribution emerges from a random growth model with lognormally distributed initial fund valuations. This model endogenously generates power-law tails in the stationary cross-section. The new distribution fits the data better than competing distributions. Fat tails are particularly pronounced in venture capital funds and suggest returns with infinite variance over the lifetime of the fund. The smooth double Pareto distribution has wide applicability to growth processes with a random initial value.

Suggested Citation

  • Lahr, Henry, 2023. "Fat tails in private equity fund returns: The smooth double Pareto distribution," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:86:y:2023:i:c:s1057521922004215
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102471
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Size distribution; Income distribution; Pareto law; Power-law distribution; Fat tails; Private equity; Venture capital; Financial returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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