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Can local policy uncertainty curtail corporate speculation on financial assets?

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  • Aibai, Abuduwali
  • Peng, Yuchao
  • Shen, Peiyi
  • Xu, Hongmei

Abstract

Using a hand-collected data set of city-level local official's turnover in China, we find that the average financial investments of listed non-financial firms decrease significantly in the spike of local political uncertainty, i.e., when upon the turnover of city head occurs. The decrease in financial investment still occurs upon the predicted timing of city heads' turnover. The effect is more prominent for firms with high financial distress risk and weaker corporate governance, i.e., those with higher speculative motives. Overall, this paper reveals that local political uncertainty discourages firms' speculative motives of investing in financial securities.

Suggested Citation

  • Aibai, Abuduwali & Peng, Yuchao & Shen, Peiyi & Xu, Hongmei, 2022. "Can local policy uncertainty curtail corporate speculation on financial assets?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:83:y:2022:i:c:s1057521922002435
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102287
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial investment; Speculative; Precautionary motive; Local political uncertainty; Non-financial firm;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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