IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v71y2020ics1057521919304284.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fundamental strength strategy: The role of investor sentiment versus limits to arbitrage

Author

Listed:
  • Zhu, Zhaobo
  • Sun, Licheng
  • Yung, Kenneth

Abstract

This paper evaluates the return predictability of fundamental strength in a two-dimensional framework that considers both investor sentiment and limits to arbitrage simultaneously. Sentiment and limits to arbitrage have independent and overlapping explanatory power on the return predictability of fundamental strength. The return predictability of fundamental strength is more pronounced among stocks with high arbitrage costs following high sentiment. Among stocks with low arbitrage costs, the fundamental strength strategy is profitable only following high sentiment. However, among stocks with high arbitrage costs, the same strategy can earn economically and statistically significant profits even following low sentiment. Consistent with Miller (1977), we emphasize the interaction of sentiment and limits to arbitrage on stock valuation.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Zhaobo & Sun, Licheng & Yung, Kenneth, 2020. "Fundamental strength strategy: The role of investor sentiment versus limits to arbitrage," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:71:y:2020:i:c:s1057521919304284
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101452
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521919304284
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101452?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    2. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    3. Xiafei Li & Di Luo, 2017. "Investor Sentiment, Limited Arbitrage, and the Cash Holding Effect," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2141-2168.
    4. Lee, Charles M. C. & So, Eric C., 2015. "Alphanomics: The Informational Underpinnings of Market Efficiency," Foundations and Trends(R) in Accounting, now publishers, vol. 9(2-3), pages 59-258, December.
    5. Piotroski, JD, 2000. "Value investing: The use of historical financial statement information to separate winners from losers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38, pages 1-41.
    6. Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015. "Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 791-837.
    7. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    8. Zhu, Zhaobo & Sun, Licheng & Yung, Kenneth & Chen, Min, 2020. "Limited investor attention, relative fundamental strength, and the cross-section of stock returns," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4).
    9. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    10. Ou, Jane A. & Penman, Stephen H., 1989. "Financial statement analysis and the prediction of stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 295-329, November.
    11. Pontiff, Jeffrey, 2006. "Costly arbitrage and the myth of idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 35-52, October.
    12. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    13. Mashruwala, Christina & Rajgopal, Shivaram & Shevlin, Terry, 2006. "Why is the accrual anomaly not arbitraged away? The role of idiosyncratic risk and transaction costs," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 3-33, October.
    14. Zhu, Zhaobo & Sun, Licheng & Chen, Min, 2019. "Fundamental strength and short-term return reversal," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 22-39.
    15. Tyler Shumway & Vincent A. Warther, 1999. "The Delisting Bias in CRSP's Nasdaq Data and Its Implications for the Size Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2361-2379, December.
    16. Duan, Ying & Hu, Gang & McLean, R. David, 2010. "Costly arbitrage and idiosyncratic risk: Evidence from short sellers," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 564-579, October.
    17. Joseph D. Piotroski & Eric C. So, 2012. "Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(9), pages 2841-2875.
    18. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    19. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    20. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    21. Abarbanell, JS & Bushee, BJ, 1997. "Fundamental analysis, future earnings, and stock prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24.
    22. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    23. Lev, B & Thiagarajan, Sr, 1993. "Fundamental Information Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 190-215.
    24. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    25. Shumway, Tyler, 1997. "The Delisting Bias in CRSP Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 327-340, March.
    26. Chordia, Tarun & Shivakumar, Lakshmanan, 2006. "Earnings and price momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 627-656, June.
    27. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2006. "Profitability, investment and average returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 491-518, December.
    28. Partha Mohanram & Sasan Saiy & Dushyantkumar Vyas, 2018. "Fundamental analysis of banks: the use of financial statement information to screen winners from losers," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 200-233, March.
    29. Samuel G. Hanson & Adi Sunderam, 2014. "The Growth and Limits of Arbitrage: Evidence from Short Interest," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 1238-1286.
    30. Boehme, Rodney D. & Danielsen, Bartley R. & Sorescu, Sorin M., 2006. "Short-Sale Constraints, Differences of Opinion, and Overvaluation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 455-487, June.
    31. Nagel, Stefan, 2005. "Short sales, institutional investors and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 277-309, November.
    32. Xuemin (Sterling) Yan & Lingling Zheng, 2017. "Fundamental Analysis and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns: A Data-Mining Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 1382-1423.
    33. Richard R. Mendenhall, 2004. "Arbitrage Risk and Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 875-894, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Su, Zhi & Lyu, Tongtong & Yin, Libo, 2022. "China's illiquidity premium: Due to risk-taking or mispricing?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Ma, Yao & Yang, Baochen & Ye, Tao, 2024. "Quality acceleration and cross-sectional returns: Empirical evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Yang, Baochen & Ye, Tao & Ma, Yao, 2022. "Financing anomaly, mispricing and cross-sectional return predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 579-598.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jacobs, Heiko, 2015. "What explains the dynamics of 100 anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 65-85.
    2. Zhu, Zhaobo & Ding, Wenjie & Jin, Yi & Shen, Dehua, 2023. "Dissecting the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: A fundamental analysis approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Zhu, Zhaobo & Sun, Licheng & Yung, Kenneth & Chen, Min, 2020. "Limited investor attention, relative fundamental strength, and the cross-section of stock returns," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4).
    4. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Tuneshev, Ruslan, 2018. "Differences in options investors’ expectations and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 315-336.
    5. Chuan ‘Chewie’ Ang, Tze & Lam, F.Y. Eric C. & Ma, Tai & Wang, Shujing & Wei, K.C. John, 2019. "What is the real relationship between cash holdings and stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 513-528.
    6. Ma, Yao & Yang, Baochen & Ye, Tao, 2024. "Quality acceleration and cross-sectional returns: Empirical evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Ang, Tze Chuan ‘Chewie’ & Lam, F.Y. Eric C. & Wei, K.C. John, 2020. "Mispricing firm-level productivity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 139-163.
    8. Jang, Jeewon & Kang, Jangkoo, 2019. "Probability of price crashes, rational speculative bubbles, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 222-247.
    9. Yang, Lisa (Zongfei) & Goh, Jeremy & Chiyachantana, Chiraphol, 2016. "Valuation uncertainty, market sentiment and the informativeness of institutional trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 81-98.
    10. Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
    11. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Lesnevski, Pavel & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2023. "Surprise in short interest," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Kelley Bergsma & Jitendra Tayal, 2019. "Short Interest and Lottery Stocks," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 187-227, March.
    13. Mazouz, Khelifa & Wu, Yuliang, 2022. "Why do firm fundamentals predict returns? Evidence from short selling activity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    15. Konstantinidi, Theodosia, 2022. "Firm life cycle, expectation errors and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    16. Qian, Xiaolin, 2014. "Small investor sentiment, differences of opinion and stock overvaluation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 219-246.
    17. Lam, F.Y. Eric C. & Wei, K.C. John, 2011. "Limits-to-arbitrage, investment frictions, and the asset growth anomaly," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 127-149, October.
    18. Hannes Mohrschladt & Judith C. Schneider, 2021. "Idiosyncratic volatility, option-based measures of informed trading, and investor attention," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 197-220, October.
    19. Robert F. Stambaugh & Yu Yuan, 2017. "Mispricing Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 1270-1315.
    20. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Grinblatt, Mark, 2018. "Agnostic fundamental analysis works," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 125-147.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor sentiment; Limits to arbitrage; Fundamental strength; Mispricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:71:y:2020:i:c:s1057521919304284. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.