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Time-varying risk premium yield spread effect in term structure and global financial crisis: Evidence from Europe

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  • Choudhry, Taufiq

Abstract

The global financial crisis had a significant effect on the interest rates and the term structure of interest rates around the globe. In this paper we apply the GARCH-in-mean (GARCH-M) to study the effect of the global financial crisis on the term structure volatility, persistence of volatility, risk premium, and effects of the yield spread in five European markets; Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain (PIIGS). To the best of our knowledge this is the first such study in the field, and thus represents the main contribution of the paper to the literature. We investigate both the longer end and the shorter end of the term structure. We study two versions of the longer end based on the 10-year bond (long-term rate) and the two short-term rates, (three- and six-month rates). The shorter end of the term structure is based on the two short-term rates. Results indicate a substantial change in the term structure volatility, persistence of volatility, risk premium, and the effects of the yield spread due to the financial crisis. These results are found for both the longer end and the shorter end versions of the term structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Choudhry, Taufiq, 2016. "Time-varying risk premium yield spread effect in term structure and global financial crisis: Evidence from Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 303-311.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:48:y:2016:i:c:p:303-311
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2015.08.012
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-varying; Risk premium; Crisis; GARCH; Term structure; Interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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