The fertility response to price changes in a manorial society: The case of rural Estonia, 1834–1884

In the pre-industrial era, changing economic conditions had a strong influence on demographic processes. Using pre-industrial rural Estonia as an example, the article studies fertility response to short-term economic stress in a manorial society in eastern Europe. It considers whether the fertility response to rye price fluctuations was deliberate and whether it was socially differentiated. It appears that an increase in the price of rye resulted in the drop of conceptions within the next year and the magnitude of the impact on fertility was roughly similar to that in several other European settings in the 19th century. As long as the manorial system was maintained, farmers were more sensitive to price hikes than the landless, but with the decline of the mutual economic dependence between manors and farms, the landless laborers became more vulnerable to price increases. Our analysis of the timing of the fertility response reveals no deliberate postponement of conceptions immediately before or after the low harvests or price increases. Instead, conceptions dropped only in the spring and summer season of the next year, indicating a non-deliberate and spontaneous response.