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Assumptions in theories of change

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  • Mayne, John

Abstract

This paper argues that assumptions in a theory of change are the causal connections, events, and conditions that need to be realized for the intervention to work. Using an example of an intervention aimed at improving educational outcomes for girls in a conservative region, two kinds of assumptions are discussed: cause-effect assumptions and causal-link assumptions. Implications for the use of theories of change, including their use in setting causality and the utility of evidence in argument for learning about and testing assumptions are also discussed. The need for an explicit description of what is meant by the term ‘assumptions’ in association with a theory of change is also highlighted.

Suggested Citation

  • Mayne, John, 2023. "Assumptions in theories of change," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:epplan:v:98:y:2023:i:c:s0149718923000538
    DOI: 10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2023.102276
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    Cited by:

    1. Cook, Ailsa & Morton, Sarah & Henderson, Flora, 2023. "Interrogating assumptions about the relationship between service providers and recipients: Learning from a new service for survivors of In Care Abuse," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).

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