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Uncertainty evaluation in air quality planning decisions: a case study for Northern Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Carnevale, C.
  • Douros, J.
  • Finzi, G.
  • Graff, A.
  • Guariso, G.
  • Nahorski, Z.
  • Pisoni, E.
  • Ponche, J-L.
  • Real, E.
  • Turrini, E.
  • Vlachokostas, Ch.

Abstract

In recent years, evaluating the robustness of environmental models results has become essential in order to effectively support decision makers to define suitable emission control strategies. This evaluation is performed in literature through uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. Therefore, the application of such methodologies to air quality Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) is extremely challenging. In fact, in this case uncertainty and sensitivity analyses should be assessed not only for each single component of the system, but also for the overall IAM. In the paper, an attempt is made to extend and systematize the information available on uncertainty/sensitivity analysis, at first considering environmental models in general, and then focusing on air quality IAMs. The study aims to offer a tentative framework addressed to modelers and decision makers in the implementation of IAM and evaluation of its results. The framework has been tested on Lombardy region (Northern Italy). The results show how the uncertainty on Drivers of emissions propagates on the whole modelling chain characterizing an integrated assessment study.

Suggested Citation

  • Carnevale, C. & Douros, J. & Finzi, G. & Graff, A. & Guariso, G. & Nahorski, Z. & Pisoni, E. & Ponche, J-L. & Real, E. & Turrini, E. & Vlachokostas, Ch., 2016. "Uncertainty evaluation in air quality planning decisions: a case study for Northern Italy," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 39-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enscpo:v:65:y:2016:i:c:p:39-47
    DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2016.02.001
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    Cited by:

    1. P. Thunis & Ana Isabel A A. Miranda & Jose J.M. Baldasano & Nadège N.M. Blond & John Douros & Arno Graff & Stijn Janssen & Katarzyna Juda-Rezler & Niko Karvosenoja & Giuseppe Maffeis & Alberto Martill, 2016. "Overview of current regional and local scale air quality modelling practices: Assessment and planning tools in the EU," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/284485, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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