Collaborative governance and rare floods in urban regions – Dealing with uncertainty and surprise

Rare floods in urban regions like the Dresden region triggered significant changes in public policy and research. However, how actors are able to deal with uncertainty and surprise related to rare floods in the future is still open to many questions and debates in flood risk management research and practice. From an interpretative and agency-oriented perspective, the paper asks how dealing with uncertainty and surprise may be enhanced through processes of collaborative governance for rare floods in urban regions. The paper follows a conceptual purpose based on a series of completed projects and publications on flood risk management in the urban region of Dresden. Conceptual analysis highlights two strategic options for focusing collaboration of public and private actors: planning for flood risk reduction and searching for resilience. Both options are based on assumptions of collaborators about the predictability of the specific flood risk management problem at stake, especially with regard to analyzing surprise in retrospect. The paper elucidates on implications in the context of collaboration, participation, and governance.