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Global energy production and use to the year 2050

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  • Edmonds, Jae
  • Reilly, John

Abstract

We have explored the long-term global evolution of energy production and consumption, in conjunction with a program to investigate the global carbon dioxide issue. This paper presents energy findings which have grown out of that work. While our initial motivation to look at energy was environmental, that look has revealed many energy surprises such as a stable world oil price to the year 2000, which delays the introduction of backstop technologies until the next century, a major shift toward shale oil and coal to produce liquid fuels after 2025, and a heavy substitution of conservation and small-scale solar energy for commercial fuels, but only a minor penetration of centralized solar electric power generation. The base case is a conditional projection. We also consider some of the major factors which could result in alternative evolutionary paths of the global energy system.

Suggested Citation

  • Edmonds, Jae & Reilly, John, 1983. "Global energy production and use to the year 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 8(6), pages 419-432.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:8:y:1983:i:6:p:419-432
    DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(83)90064-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Kenneth Gillingham & William D. Nordhaus & David Anthoff & Geoffrey Blanford & Valentina Bosetti & Peter Christensen & Haewon McJeon & John Reilly & Paul Sztorc, 2015. "Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison," NBER Working Papers 21637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bosetti, Valentina & Marangoni, Giacomo & Borgonovo, Emanuele & Diaz Anadon, Laura & Barron, Robert & McJeon, Haewon C. & Politis, Savvas & Friley, Paul, 2015. "Sensitivity to energy technology costs: A multi-model comparison analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 244-263.
    3. Brandt, Adam R., 2010. "Review of mathematical models of future oil supply: Historical overview and synthesizing critique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3958-3974.

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