A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a DuPont, Inc. venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model) and the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM), which were developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL); the MITRE Corporation's Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models developed by Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal electric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.