Stochastic game analysis of effective utility-scale photovoltaic recycling under extended producer responsibility framework in China

With the rapid development of the Utility-scale photovoltaic (USPV) industry, end-of-life USPV recycling has become a critical concern in China. Effective policy frameworks are needed to promote efficient recycling practices. While the Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) framework has been widely applied in waste management, its application to USPV recycling lacks sufficient exploration. Thus, this study evaluates the effectiveness of the EPR framework in establishing a market-driven recycling system for USPV in China and proposes targeted policy recommendations based on the evaluation results. A stochastic evolutionary game model was developed to explore the influence of the government, photovoltaic manufacturers, and industry associations in shaping recycling strategies. The impact of industry association participation in the EPR recycling system was simulated based on local data. The results show that industry association involvement strengthens the recycling efforts of manufacturers and reduces government intervention costs. Specifically, when industry associations actively participate, the government can reduce subsidies for manufacturers from 6 CNY to 4 CNY while still accelerating the transition to a market-based USPV recycling system. Moreover, excessive cooperation between manufacturers and industry associations may hinder the transition. This paper provides a theoretical approach for governments to formulate effective USPV recycling incentives within the EPR framework.